The average rate on 30-year mortgages rose to 6.12% as of April 15, 2026, up from 5.75% in early March, after declining at the start of the year. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecast that the average 30-year mortgage rate will reach 6.2% by the end of 2026, and most industry experts expect rates to finish the year near the low 6% range.

Several factors contributed to the recent increase, including geopolitical uncertainty and its effects on gas prices and inflation expectations. With average home prices exceeding $400,000, a quarter of a percentage-point change in mortgage rates can add tens of thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a loan.

"Predictions are hard, given today's conditions," said Bill Dawley, senior vice president of residential lending at Amegy Bank. "Rates could continue to move higher if energy prices remain elevated, inflation consistently comes in above expectations, and the Federal Reserve responds to stronger-than-expected economic data with a more hawkish stance," he added.

Mortgage trading desks have grown cautious because of volatility in interest rates. "The mortgage trading desks hate not knowing which direction the wind is blowing. And when interest rates bounce around, the mortgage trading desks don't get aggressive in setting rates," said Kevin Leibowitz, mortgage broker at Grayton Mortgage.

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and their economic effects could alter current forecasts in either direction. "Right now, the market is trading on headlines more than data," said Nicole Rueth, senior vice president at The Rueth Team of Cross Country Mortgage. "Geopolitics is driving everything right now in a way we haven't seen in a while. Oil prices feed into inflation expectations, inflation expectations feed into the 10-year Treasury yield, and the 10-year drives mortgage rates. If oil stabilizes and inflation cools, there's a path back toward the low-to-mid 6% range by year-end," she added.

For mortgage rates to decline, geopolitical conflicts would need to de-escalate, oil prices would need to stabilize, and inflation would need to remain under control. Locking a mortgage rate can protect a borrower from rate increases while shopping for a home, and lenders often offer complimentary rate locks between 30 and 90 days. Improving credit scores, saving for a larger down payment, and shopping around among multiple lenders have also been shown to help borrowers secure lower rates.