PHOENIX — Under the Bureau of Reclamation’s plan, California, Nevada and Arizona will collectively reduce water use by 1.25 million acre-feet annually in the next two years. Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico are not required to make water cuts under the current Bureau of Reclamation plan but could voluntarily reduce water. Phoenix could lose some municipal and industrial water for the first time under the new federal plan, marking a shift for major metropolitan areas in the basin.

In Cave Creek, a town in Maricopa County, Arizona, with a population of about 5,000 people, residents have already faced the realities of shrinking supplies. The community gets nearly all of its water from the Colorado River and was forced to make water cuts earlier this year. To manage the shortage, the town has capped growth, revived old wells and struck water deals.

Robert Morris, Mayor of Cave Creek, described the difficulty of planning under such conditions. "You can see it coming, but you can't get out of the way and you don't know what the damage is going to be," Morris said. The uncertainty regarding water supplies stretches across seven U.S. states, tribal nations and Mexico, creating anxiety for officials who cannot predict the extent of the damage.

Agricultural producers in Yuma, Arizona, face different constraints due to the long lead times required for crop production. John Boelts, Arizona Farm Bureau president, grows vegetables, melons, durum wheat and other crops in the region, which produces about 90% of leafy greens eaten in North America during the winter. Farmers in Yuma, Arizona have high-priority rights and may avoid cuts to their Colorado River supply over the next two years, but the broader instability affects planning.

"There's no food that we grow in a hurry," Boelts said. He noted that agricultural cycles do not allow for quick adjustments to sudden policy changes or water shortages. "Beef takes years to produce. The lettuce you eat today? A farmer was working on how they would grow that crop six plus months ago," he added.

On reservations along the river, some farmers have taken voluntary steps to conserve water. Ray Martinez grows alfalfa on a reservation that is home to the Colorado River Indian Tribes, which hold some of the river’s oldest rights. Martinez has left some fields unplanted for years to help prop up Lake Mead. In 2025, the Colorado River Indian Tribes granted the Colorado River personhood status, a legal designation reflecting the deep cultural and economic ties to the water source.

"Unfortunately, Mother Nature has its own way of doing things, and we have no control of that," Martinez said. Beyond the immediate basin, reservoirs such as Elephant Butte Lake in New Mexico remain critical for supplying water for crops in southern New Mexico, Texas and Mexico. The Green Mountain Reservoir serves the western part of Colorado, while the Guernsey Reservoir in Wyoming funnels water to farmers in the eastern part of the state and western Nebraska.

Timeline

Cave Creek was forced to make water cuts on January 1, 2026. The Interior Department published a notice titled "Notice of Intended Disposition: U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Upper Colorado Basin Region, Salt Lake City, UT" on July 15, 2026. On August 1, 2026, eight other reservoirs operated by the Bureau of Reclamation recently recorded the lowest levels in at least the last 30 years, and Lake Mead and Lake Powell hit record lows this month.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said it does not comment on litigation on August 28, 2026. On August 29, 2026, Nevada sued the Interior Department and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Also on August 29, 2026, Nevada stated in its lawsuit that basic needs in the Las Vegas region will go unmet if the area has to absorb planned reductions of up to 70% of its Colorado River water in the next decade.

What's New

Additional reporting clarifies that the relevant number is 1.25 million acre-feet, which is the amount of water usage that California, Nevada, and Arizona will collectively reduce annually during the next two years under the Bureau of Reclamation's plan.

Further context indicates that the Colorado River Indian Tribes granted the Colorado River personhood status in 2025. Cave Creek is a town in Maricopa County, Arizona, United States.

Why It Matters

The Colorado River serves 40 million people across the U.S. West, and the uncertainty regarding water supplies stretches across seven U.S. states, tribal nations and Mexico. The record lows at Lake Mead and Lake Powell, along with the lowest levels in at least 30 years for eight other Bureau of Reclamation reservoirs, indicate a systemic strain on the water infrastructure that supports agriculture, municipal supplies, and energy production.

Nevada’s lawsuit shows the potential for severe impacts on basic human needs in the Las Vegas region if reductions reach 70% over the next decade. With Phoenix facing potential municipal and industrial water losses for the first time, and agricultural regions like Yuma navigating complex priority rights, the plan’s implementation will test the resilience of communities and economies dependent on the river. The voluntary conservation efforts by farmers like Ray Martinez and the legal personhood status granted by the Colorado River Indian Tribes in 2025 reflect the diverse strategies emerging in response to the crisis.