WESTERN U.S. — A group of Colorado River experts released a report on Monday projecting that another warm, arid winter could leave Colorado River reservoirs nearly dry. The report forecasted the impacts of both a dry winter and a wetter one, finding that neither scenario would provide enough water to end the basin’s drought.

Lakes Mead and Powell would hover just above the minimum elevations required for their dams to produce electricity and maintain structural integrity under a dry winter scenario. Hoover and Glen Canyon dams would be close to operating as “run-of-the-river” facilities that store no surplus. If water year 2027 resembles water year 2025—one of the five driest since 2000—and human consumption matches the lowest levels this century, the U.S. would overconsume the river’s natural flow by 2.59 million acre feet. Such overconsumption would “risk a crash of the Basin’s water storage system,” the authors found.

Water use in the Colorado River Basin has recently ranged between 11 and 13 million acre feet, consistently exceeding natural supply. Even if next winter delivers snowfall similar to water year 2023—the third wettest of the century—and human consumption matches that year’s levels, the Colorado River could provide a surplus of 4.83 million acre feet. However, a wetter water year would only temporarily recharge Lakes Powell and Mead, with overconsumption returning reservoir levels to current lows in less than two years.

“Both scenarios demonstrate the need to adopt additional measures to permanently decrease consumptive uses across the entire Basin,” the authors wrote. Eric Kuhn, retired general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, said, “Every time we go through a wet period, we don't recover enough and we haven't reduced basic uses enough. The next dry cycle is worse.” He added, “This is not a temporary situation. The long-term solution is a permanent reduction in the consumptive use footprint throughout the basin.” Kuhn also said, “The 1990s were relatively wet,” and noted that since 2020, the Colorado River has provided about 10 million acre feet of water annually. He said, “Reclamation is on their toes when it comes to improving these forecasts.”

Anne Castle, senior fellow at the Getches-Wilkinson Center at the University of Colorado Law School, said a dry scenario “could put a lot of market pressure on agricultural water users” to sell their water to cities. She added such pressure would “have an effect on agricultural production and rural communities.” Castle also expressed concern that the Bureau of Reclamation’s minimum probable inflow forecast for water year 2027 is “way high,” noting that current hydrological models may underestimate aridity. “It’s just so hard to make those kinds of deep cuts,” Castle said. “When you translate that into who exactly is going to get less water, it gets even harder.” She also said, “There is concern that because the seven states haven’t been able to come to a consensus agreement and because Reclamation’s and Interior’s authorities are limited, the operation we’ll see described is potentially not going to be sufficient to stabilize the system.”

Mark Squillace, natural resources law professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, said, “By and large, their analysis is right—we need to reduce consumption.” He agreed that the basin cannot rely on a short-term agreement, calling it “just kicking the can down the road.” Squillace said strategies and incentives are needed to reduce consumptive water use, particularly among farmers, and added that the hydrology “is gonna get worse” due to climate change.