SAN FRANCISCO — OpenAI and Anthropic have both filed confidentially to go public. These filings prompted Redfin to publish an analysis on July 9, 2026, estimating the hypothetical purchasing power of their employees in major metropolitan areas following their initial public offerings.

Redfin's analysis indicates that current and former OpenAI employees collectively hold approximately $135 billion in equity after taxes. At a target valuation of around $1 trillion, employee equity is estimated to account for about 26% of OpenAI, or roughly $260 billion. OpenAI has granted roughly $80 billion in vested equity to employees and set aside an additional $50 billion employee stock grant pool. OpenAI is targeting a listing at a valuation above $1 trillion in late 2026 or 2027.

The analysis also estimates that current and former Anthropic employees hold $63 billion in equity after taxes. Anthropic filed its S-1 confidentially on June 1, 2026, at a $965 billion valuation, and it aims to go public as early as fall 2026. Anthropic is targeting a public listing at a valuation between $965 billion and $1 trillion, and Redfin estimates its employee equity stake at a midpoint of roughly $120 billion, or 10%–15% of total shares. Amazon holds approximately 15–17% of Anthropic, and Google holds approximately 14% of the company.

The combined purchasing power of current and former OpenAI and Anthropic employees could hypothetically enable them to acquire 29% of all homes in the San Francisco metro area. Separately, OpenAI employees could hypothetically purchase 20% of all homes in San Francisco, based on their IPO earnings. They could also purchase 15% of all homes in the San Jose metro area and 15% of all homes in the Oakland metro area.

Anthropic employees could hypothetically purchase 9% of all homes in the San Francisco metro area with their IPO earnings. This extends to 7% of all homes in the San Jose metro area and 7% of all homes in the Oakland metro area. As of 2024, the total value of all homes in San Francisco was $692 billion, in San Jose was $872 billion, and in Oakland was $894 billion.

Why It Matters

The confidential filings by OpenAI and Anthropic for initial public offerings could introduce new wealth into the real estate markets of major metropolitan areas, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area. Redfin's analysis provides a hypothetical measure of the collective purchasing power of employees from these two companies, indicating potential shifts in regional housing markets. Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic IPOs have been formally priced or scheduled, and employees typically face lockup periods of up to 180 days following an IPO before they can sell shares.