ATLANTIC OCEAN — Forecasters are predicting a near-average Atlantic hurricane season from late September into November despite a strengthening El Niño event. The European tropical forecast model indicates an increase in Atlantic activity during the late hurricane season.

An El Niño event is expected to strengthen and could reach super status in the fall. El Niño conditions are currently present in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically suppresses tropical activity in the Atlantic due to upper-level wind shear. "This intense wind shear typically rips developing tropical disturbances apart before they can organize into dangerous hurricanes."

Strong upper-level winds are currently preventing tropical formation in the Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds are expected to increase over the Atlantic through at least July. No tropical activity is expected in the Atlantic heading into mid-July.

NOAA forecasts eight to 14 named storms for the Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University forecasts 11 named storms. The Atlantic hurricane season had one named storm by mid-June.

The updated July European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast calls for exactly 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The Atlantic Basin typically produces an average of 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes between August and November.

The European forecast model also predicts wetter-than-average conditions across the Southeast U.S. and drier-than-average conditions across the Caribbean and the Atlantic Main Development Region. Tropical development is expected to occur more frequently in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast U.S. coast.

"The warming sea surface temperatures have the potential to offset some of the suppressing effects of El Niño." El Niño typically creates favorable conditions for major hurricanes and super typhoons in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

The Climate Prediction Center is scheduled to release an El Niño-Southern Oscillation update on Thursday. Multiple forecast models indicate that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season expects to be near-average, even with an anticipated strengthening El Niño. Both NOAA and Colorado State University have issued seasonal forecasts. The European model's predictions for 12 named storms and 6 hurricanes align with the historical average for the Atlantic Basin during the August to November period. The interplay between El Niño's suppressing effects and warming sea surface temperatures introduces complexity into hurricane activity forecasts. The expected increase in tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast U.S. coast, combined with wetter conditions in the Southeast U.S., could impact coastal communities in those regions.