GULF OF MEXICO — At 1000 AM CDT on July 19, 2026, the center of the depression was located at latitude 28.0 North and longitude 85.3 West. By 100 PM CDT, the center had shifted to latitude 27.8 North and longitude 85.0 West.

The system was positioned approximately 155 miles south of Panama City, Florida, during the morning update. By the afternoon, it was located approximately 170 miles south-southeast of the same city.

Maximum sustained winds for Tropical Depression Two were recorded at 30 mph (45 km/h) on July 19, 2026. The minimum central pressure of the system was measured at 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

The depression was moving north-northwest at 2 mph (4 km/h) at 1000 AM CDT. By 100 PM CDT, its forward motion had slowed to north-northwest at 1 mph (2 km/h).

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the area from the Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama border on July 19, 2026. The National Hurricane Center forecasted that Depression Two would become a tropical storm on the night of July 19 or on July 20, 2026.

The system is expected to be named Bertha if it reaches tropical storm status. Prior to its designation as a depression, the system was monitored as Invest 91L.

The National Hurricane Center assigned an 80 percent chance of formation through 48 hours and an 80 percent chance through 7 days in its 8 AM update on July 19, 2026. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was scheduled to fly into the system on the afternoon of July 19, 2026.

Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher totals around 8 inches, through Thursday. These totals are projected along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

Storm surge heights of 1 to 3 feet above ground are possible from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, Florida. This surge potential applies if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

The designation of Depression Two initiates formal tracking and warning protocols for communities along the Gulf Coast. The activation of a Tropical Storm Watch indicates that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, prompting residents and officials to prepare for potential impacts.

NOAA predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic in 2026 due to the formation and strengthening of El Niño. This forecast provides broader context for the development of Depression Two within the seasonal outlook.