JERSEY SHORE — A string of storms could batter the Jersey Shore on Saturday, July 18 with the potential of flash floods, 60-mph wind gusts and tornadoes. The National Weather Service expects multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, hail, and strong tornadoes.

The storms are expected to begin after 10 a.m. with the most severe weather hitting in the afternoon and evening. Meteorologist Brian Ciemnecki with the National Weather Service said the most dangerous periods for storms would likely land between 4 and 8 p.m., "give or take an hour or two on either side." The storms are expected to end after 2 a.m. on Sunday, July 19.

"We just have a strong system coming through and the ingredients are just overlapping for a multi-threat kind of day," Mike Lee, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, said. Damaging wind gusts between 50 and 70 mph are the main threat with these strong storms, according to the New York City Emergency Management Department. A flood watch is in effect for much of the area for Saturday, and a flash flood warning is in effect for Ocean County.

Nearly all of the tri-state area is in the "more likely" zone for tornadoes. "Tornadoes don't discriminate," Ciemnecki said. Ciemnecki added, "It's not like you have this classic F4 barreling through Manhattan," using a term that describes a devastatingly intense tornado on the Fujita Scale.

The National Weather Service has placed New York City under a flood watch running from Saturday morning into early Sunday. NYC Emergency Management activated its Flash Flood Emergency Plan on Friday. A tornado warning expired for parts of Ocean County, including Mystic Island, Tuckerton, North Beach Haven, and Long Beach Island, until 8:30 p.m. EDT on July 16.

Monmouth and Ocean counties have unhealthy air quality due to smoke from Canadian wildfires. Ciemnecki said smoke from Canadian wildfires drifted back into the New York area overnight and will linger through the first half of Saturday. Saturday morning, air quality through most of New York City was rated "unhealthy," but was expected to improve over the course of the day. The New Jersey Department of Health urged residents to limit their outdoor activity on Friday, July 17.

The storm coincides with Haskell Day at Monmouth Park. The featured race, the Haskell Stakes, has a post time of 5:45 p.m. Middle Road near the intersection of Palmer Avenue was shut down after heavy rain in Holmdel, New Jersey on Thursday, July 9, 2026.

"Be very careful," New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill said in a video posted on Instagram. Sherrill added, Stay away from trees as the storm comes in. Make sure you're keeping yourself and your family safe.

Never drive through floodwaters. They can really rise quickly and unexpectedly.

New York City residents can sign up for alerts by texting NOTIFYNYC to 692-692. Sunday and Monday should be drier and the skies less smoky in New York City, according to Ciemnecki. Thunderstorms are expected to return to New York City by Tuesday, according to him.

The forecast encompasses a multi-hazard scenario across a densely populated corridor, with the Jersey Shore and surrounding tri-state area facing simultaneous threats of tornadoes, flash flooding, and damaging winds. The convergence of severe weather with a major event at Monmouth Park and pre-existing unhealthy air quality from Canadian wildfire smoke expands the scope of potential impacts. Officials have activated emergency plans, issued flood watches, and urged residents to take precautionary measures ahead of the system's arrival.