NEW YORK — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Survey of Consumer Expectations on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. The survey indicated that the median expected inflation rate one year ahead was 3.7% in June 2026, up from 3.5% in May 2026, marking the highest level since September 2023. The median expected inflation rate three years ahead rose to 3.3% in June 2026 from 3.1% in May 2026, the highest reading since June 2022. The median expected inflation rate five years ahead remained at 3% in June 2026.

New York Fed President John Williams stated in a television interview on July 7, 2026, that "inflation is still too high." Williams also expressed a positive outlook on near-term inflation due to energy price trends. "I do feel a little bit more positive about the near-term inflation outlook because of the energy price declines that we're going to see," Williams said.

The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during its June 2026 policy meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated in a press conference last month that "I am pleased to report that members of the [Federal Open Market Committee] are unambiguous and unanimous: This Committee will deliver price stability."

The overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 4.1% in May 2026 compared to May 2025, following a 3.8% increase in April 2026 compared to April 2025. The survey also found that public concern regarding gasoline prices moderated in June 2026 to a level last recorded in August 2022.

In other findings, the survey reported that the public had more optimistic views on the labor market in June 2026. Additionally, consumers held a more upbeat assessment of their current and future personal finances. Views on current and future credit access were mixed during the same period.