PACIFIC — El Niño is strengthening and is forecast to approach Super El Niño status later in the hurricane season in the Pacific, according to the FOX Forecast Center. This system is driving above-average tropical activity in the Pacific while inhibiting storm formation in the Atlantic during the middle of the 2025 hurricane season.
Typical El Niño impacts are emerging across both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, the FOX Forecast Center said. In the Eastern Pacific, tropical activity is currently above average. Conversely, tropical activity in the Atlantic is quieter than normal.
Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and atmospheric lift are fueling storm development across the Pacific. Favorable conditions, including rising air and warm ocean temperatures, are expected to persist across the Pacific into early July. Typhoon Mekkhala has been observed as a very strong typhoon with 130 mph winds, and Tropical Storm Higos has 40 mph winds. Additionally, Invest 94E is being monitored in the Eastern Pacific, with a 30% chance of development in the next seven days.
In the Atlantic, stronger upper-level winds and increased sinking air are limiting tropical development. No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic in the next seven days. Saharan dust and hostile winds are suppressing activity in the Atlantic, along with an African airmass injecting dry, stable air into the region. These hostile winds across the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean are expected to limit activity and contribute to below-average rainfall.
The term "invest" is used every hurricane season in the Atlantic and the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, accompanied by a number from 90 to 99 and either the suffix "L," "E" or "C," respectively. Seasonal forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University call for below-average activity across the Atlantic Basin.
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