Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence80%
On March 23, Ukrainian forces used drones to attack the Baltic port of Primorsk in the Leningrad region of Russia.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence80%
On March 25, Ukrainian forces used drones to strike the port of Ust-Luga in the Leningrad region of Russia.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence80%
On March 26, Ukrainian forces attacked one of Russia's largest oil refineries in the Kirishi district of the Leningrad region.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence80%
Leningrad regional Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko documented fires on his Telegram channel during the first two days of the Ukrainian drone attacks.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence80%
On his Telegram channel, Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko reported damage in the industrial area of the Kirishi district.
Boris Aronstein, energy analyst
Relevance: primary · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"This is the most serious threat to exports of Russian oil and oil products since the war began."
Boris Aronstein, energy analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"The thoughtfulness, the scale and direction of the attacks, as well as the timing of their execution -- all of this together produced an effect that I personally cannot recall in the four-plus years of the war."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
On March 25, an analysis estimated that 40 percent of Russia's oil export capacity had been halted, describing it as the most severe oil supply disruption in modern Russian history.
Boris Aronstein, energy analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
Energy analyst Boris Aronstein said that the share of halted oil export capacity for Russia would be closer to 50 percent.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
The export capacity estimates encompass damage from strikes in northern Russia, reduced export traffic through the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, reduced traffic through the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine, and disruptions caused by seizures of Russian tankers from its shadow fleet.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine has been out of action since January after being damaged in a Russian attack, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The Druzhba pipeline had been used to supply oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
Several Russian shadow fleet tankers have been seized in recent months.
Keir Starmer, British Prime Minister
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence80%
On March 25, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Royal Navy ships would now also seize shadow fleet tankers following interceptions by the United States, France, Finland, Sweden, and Estonia.
Keir Starmer, British Prime Minister
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"We should go after the shadow fleet even harder."
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence80%
In a video address at the diplomatic meeting in Helsinki, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on European nations to confiscate oil from Russian tankers.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
Ukrainian drones have attacked tankers in the Black Sea.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
On March 26, a tanker carrying Russian crude oil was attacked by a drone in waters near Istanbul.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
An explosion occurred in the engine room of a Turkish-operated, foreign-flagged ship that had recently left Russia, according to Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu.
Abdulkadir Uraloglu, Turkish Transport Minister
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"We suspect the blast was caused by an unmanned underwater vehicle."
Yan Matveyev, military analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"As far as we know, in both ports there has been serious damage to the terminals themselves and, above all, to the oil depots. Several of them were on fire in both Primorsk and Ust-Luga."
Yan Matveyev, military analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"The main question is how badly damaged the port infrastructure for transshipments of oil and oil products was. If the equipment itself was damaged, it could lead to a serious pause in the loading of oil and fuel."
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence70%
In November, Ukrainian naval drones struck an oil-loading facility off the coast of Novorossiisk.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence70%
Full operations at the Novorossiisk oil-loading facility resumed in late January.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
In March 2026, loading at the Novorossiisk oil-loading facility declined following a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil pumping station that serves the port.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
Ukrainian forces have struck oil targets in the Caspian Sea.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air said that Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk had not loaded any oil for five days.
Isaac Levy, CREA analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"While Russia has previously restored damaged refineries within weeks, Ukraine's campaign of repeated drone strikes has deliberately slowed recovery timelines."
Isaac Levy, CREA analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"Refineries have been re-hit during repairs or restarts, often in two-to-three week cycles, keeping key sites offline and turning routine maintenance into prolonged disruptions."
Isaac Levy, CREA analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
CREA analyst Isaac Levy said that Russian tankers were unloading oil and available for new shipments.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
On March 26, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak spoke on energy issues in Moscow.
Aleksandr Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak said that the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and the Skovorodino-Mohe pipeline supply oil to China.
Aleksandr Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"We have these backups, and we will use them."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
China is a major importer of seaborne Russian oil.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence80%
China's capacity to absorb large new volumes of seaborne oil is limited.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
China has been stockpiling oil reserves for months.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Tankers laden with Russian and Iranian crude are idling in waters off Chinese ports in the Yellow Sea.
Agathe Demarais, analyst at the European Council for Foreign Affairs
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"At around $5 billion per month, the war-driven oil windfall is in fact little more than a band-aid for a fiscal deficit that reached $40 billion in January-February alone."
Agathe Demarais, analyst at the European Council for Foreign Affairs
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"After more than 12 years of sanctions, Moscow's oil infrastructure is decaying, with just 300,000 barrels per day of spare capacity -- hardly enough to compensate for the 10-15 million barrels per day lost in Gulf exports. With no certainty that the war will drag on, Russian oil firms are unlikely to ramp up investment anytime soon. Ukraine's drone strikes, now reaching as far as the Caspian Sea, only add to the strain."
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