HOUSTON — Meteorologists say a developing El Niño could strengthen into a "super" El Niño by this fall or winter, prolonging the wet weather pattern already underway across Southeast Texas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration places the odds of this El Niño reaching strong or very strong status at two in three.

Some forecast models indicate the system could become the most powerful El Niño on record. Meteorologists classify El Niño into four categories: weak, moderate, strong and very strong. The last El Niño occurred during winter 2023-24 and ranked among the strongest on record.

El Niño is a natural weather pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean and can trigger extreme weather around the world. According to the National Weather Service, the term refers to warmer-than-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that affect U.S. weather patterns, especially during winter. It is the opposite of La Niña, when Pacific Ocean temperatures are cooler than normal.

A typical Pacific pattern may show sea surface temperatures around 80 degrees. During El Niño, those temperatures warm above typical values, and a stronger or "super" El Niño would push them higher still.

For the Gulf Coast, one effect of El Niño is increased wind shear, which produces stronger westerly winds that can break storms apart. El Niño can also push the southern jet stream farther north, bringing more showers and thunderstorms to southern states, including Texas.

Southeast Texas is currently in a neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation but is already experiencing a wet weather pattern. "So far, the month of May has been pretty wet, and we're going to continue on that trend through the latter half of the month." meteorologist Kim Castro said. Forecasters also place the probability of an El Niño of moderate strength or stronger this year at approximately 75%.