PADUCAH — The region around Paducah, Kentucky, is in a level-three drought following a rainfall deficit that has persisted since November 2025, Chief Meteorologist Trent Okerson said in early May 2026. It would take 11 to 15 inches of rain in May to eliminate the deficit.

"This is something that has developed over a long period of time, and it's going to take a fairly long period of time to come out of as well," Okerson said. He described soil conditions at varying depths, noting that shallow soil was in relatively better condition due to recent rain, but that deeper layers remained severely dry. "The first inch or two of the soil is where the grass grows, and your typical flowers thrive off of. That's in pretty good shape right now because of the recent rain that we've had, but if you look at it from the ground to maybe two or three feet deep, we're running at a 40% to 50% deficit," he said.

Okerson said short bursts of precipitation would not resolve the underlying conditions. "We've had such a long-term shortage of rain that even a two or three inch rainfall — yes, it may give temporary relief — but it's not enough to make up for river levels that are running lower than average and the dry soil down deep in the ground. That's really where our concerns are going to start to add up," he said.

Miranda Rudolph, an agriculture and natural resources extension agent, said the drought could negatively impact agriculture, with the largest current effect on hay cutting. She noted that a drought also occurred last year and that she expected a similar situation this year, adding that last year's drought produced lower yields and reduced crop quality.

"Our hay crop, especially our first cutting, is definitely going to suffer. Quality of hay is going to be low out of this first cutting, if we get a first spring cutting at all," Rudolph said.

She said row crop farmers might need to irrigate their fields, but that irrigation ponds were running lower because of the drought. "We've had an unseasonably warm start to the spring, which can cause any kind of precipitation that we get to evaporate. If it doesn't get to soak in really quickly, it can evaporate, and our plants don't get the benefits of it," she said.

Rudolph said consumers could see effects at farmers' markets and in grocery prices. "If we're looking at diminished yields, that means higher costs passed on to the consumer because of supply and demand. If they're having to irrigate, that's more money out of the producers' pockets that they're having to spend to produce vegetables," she said.