Turkey has positioned itself as the principal diplomatic broker in the Middle East following the February 28 US-Israeli airstrike on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and decapitated much of the senior Iranian leadership. Ankara has since coordinated multilateral de-escalation efforts while maintaining communication channels with Washington, Tehran, Israel and Gulf capitals.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the US-Israeli attacks on Iran as a blatant violation of international law, closed Turkish airspace to US forces, and personally conveyed his condolences following the assassination of Khamenei. At the same time, Ankara openly criticized Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf states and blamed Iranian intransigence for the collapse of pre-war negotiations. Turkish officials privately describe their posture as "active neutrality."

On March 25, Ankara served as a go-between for messages between Iran and the United States, probing U.S. positions while warning Tehran against widening the war. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan convened in Islamabad on March 29 to coordinate de-escalation in a Turkish-driven quartet format. A Pakistani-mediated ceasefire has held since early April. On March 1, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen publicly endorsed Turkey's mediation efforts.

The regional architecture that preceded the war has shifted. For four decades, Iran functioned as the institutional anchor of a resistance axis running through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf. From 2023 onward, Israel gradually dismantled that network, and the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes have eliminated it. Russia's position is weakened after years of attrition in Ukraine, and Iran's capabilities are degraded. The Russia-Turkey-Iran triangle that governed Syrian diplomacy through the Astana process has effectively collapsed, leaving Turkey as the sole functional broker in that process. The Assad regime fell in late 2024, and Turkish-aligned actors sit at the center of the post-war settlement in Syria. Ankara maintains a quiet deconfliction channel with Israel that is the principal mechanism preventing direct collisions in Idlib and northeast Syria.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan signaled that the Syrian dossier will expand to address the Qamishli–Sinjar corridor in Iraq, where Iran-backed militias have lost the political cover once provided by Tehran. The $17 billion Development Road, designed to link Europe and Turkey to the Persian Gulf through Iraq, is now viable. The Zangezur Corridor through the South Caucasus would connect Turkey to Central Asia while bypassing Iranian territory. These corridors would re-route a meaningful share of East-West trade through Turkish-controlled space.

After Iranian missiles struck civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, Gulf monarchies are diversifying their security partnerships away from sole reliance on Washington. Turkey has become an alternative security partner in the region, and defense agreements were concluded throughout March between Ankara and Gulf states. Over the past decade, Turkey has evolved from a major arms importer into a self-reliant global exporter, with domestic defense production set to surpass 80% by 2026, anchored by the Bayraktar UAVs, the KAAN fifth-generation fighter and an expanding naval fleet under the MILGEM program. By mid-March, NATO missiles intercepted three Iranian missiles aimed at Turkey, which will host the July NATO summit. Diplomats describe a "right of access" as a permanent seat in conversations that will shape the post-war regional order.