LAS VEGAS — The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and the college football national championship in 2025, entering the draft after throwing for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns while posting the highest passer rating in the FBS that season.

Scouts Inc. ranked Mendoza second among quarterback prospects entering the 2026 draft, though projections still place him as the top overall selection by the Raiders.

The projection draws in part on QBASE 2.0, an analytical model that combines Andrew Healy's 2015 QBASE model with Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's 2018 functional mobility model. The system factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of teammates and opponents, years as a starter, and rushing ability. It also rewards improvements over time and penalizes one-year wonder seasons in which a quarterback's production is concentrated in a single standout year.

Under the QBASE 2.0 framework, quarterback performance at the professional level is measured by total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt, or TDYAR/A. A value of zero is defined as replacement level, representing the baseline production a team could expect from a freely available quarterback. A value above 1.5 TDYAR/A is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. According to QBASE 2.0 simulations, there is a 15.2% chance that at least one of the other four top projected quarterbacks in the 2026 draft class develops into an upper-tier or elite NFL starter.

The Raiders are not the only franchise facing a decision at the position. The New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers all carry varying degrees of quarterback uncertainty heading into the 2026 draft, creating the possibility that multiple teams in the first round will be targeting passers.

NIL money has made it financially feasible for some quarterback prospects to remain in school rather than declare for the 2026 draft, potentially reducing the number of available passers for teams looking to address the position. With fewer entrants and multiple teams carrying quarterback uncertainty, competition for the top prospects in the class may increase, with Mendoza projected to be the first selection on draft night.