A Datafolha poll released on Thursday, September 25, 2026, shows Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro by two percentage points in a simulated runoff. In that scenario, Lula would receive 47% of the vote and Bolsonaro would receive 45%. The two-percentage-point difference falls within the poll's margin of error, representing a technical tie.

In a first-round voting scenario, Lula leads with 40% of the vote, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 36%, Augusto Cury with 5%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, and Renan Santos with 3%. Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and September 23, 2026.

The U.S. State Department denied claims of meddling in Brazil's election, stating in a release last month that any insinuation of a ploy to undermine a democratic nation's election is a baseless lie. The United States has imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula signed a bill establishing a line of credit for companies affected by new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on July 22, 2026.

Éden Valadares, communications secretary for Lula’s Workers’ party, stated that President Lula instructed the party to mobilize Brazilian society and react in the streets. Renan Santos, a right-wing presidential candidate, denounced Donald Trump’s behavior in a social media video, stating he did not want Brazil to become a U.S. vassal state. Santos claimed in the video that actors want to interfere in Brazil’s elections to secure satisfactory contracts involving rare earths. He stated: “I don’t want to see Latin America become an American protectorate.”

Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat. Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as President of Brazil.

The first round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. A second-round runoff will be held on October 25, 2026, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. A Quaest poll released on Monday, September 21, 2026, showed Flavio Bolsonaro with 42% and Lula with 41% in a potential runoff. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula with 46% and Bolsonaro with 45% in a potential runoff.

Why It Matters

The convergence of polling data, diplomatic correspondence, and campaign messaging shows the intensity of the electoral contest and the geopolitical stakes involved. With the race technically tied according to the latest Datafolha survey, the accusations of foreign interference intersect directly with voter sentiment regarding national sovereignty and economic resources. The involvement of U.S. lawmakers and the Brazilian intelligence agency reflects the institutional attention paid to potential external influence.

The timeline of events, from tariff implementations in July to congressional letters in September, establishes a pattern of escalating tensions between the two nations' political spheres. As the election approaches, the narrative of colonization versus sovereignty serves as a central theme for candidates across the spectrum, influencing how voters perceive the relationship between domestic policy and international alliances.

Timeline

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a bill establishing a line of credit for companies affected by new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia on July 22, 2026. Dozens of Democratic Party members of Congress wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday, September 18, 2026, denouncing the Trump administration’s apparent effort to interfere with Brazil’s elections. The letter from Democratic lawmakers described the U.S. actions as a sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil. The Democratic lawmakers requested a response from Secretary of State Marco Rubio by October 1, 2026.

A Quaest poll released on Monday, September 21, 2026, showed Flavio Bolsonaro with 42% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 41% in a potential runoff. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's campaign broadcast a televised advertisement on Thursday, September 24, 2026, accusing Donald Trump of attempting to colonize Brazil.

What's New

Additional reporting confirms that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva spoke at the UN General Assembly in New York, stating: “We will not allow the enemies of democracy – internal or external – to attack the will of the people. Brazilian democracy belongs to the Brazilians.” Lula also posted on X that Flavio Bolsonaro wants to “hand our natural resources over to the United States” and stated, “If it’s up to him, Brazil will become a colony again.” Further polling data includes a Quaest poll released on Monday, September 21, 2026, which showed Flavio Bolsonaro with 42% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 41% in a potential runoff, and a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showing Lula with 46% and Bolsonaro with 45% in a potential runoff. Lula's campaign broadcast a televised advertisement on Thursday, September 24, 2026, accusing Donald Trump of attempting to colonize Brazil. Contextual information notes that Datafolha has a history of conducting high-profile political polls in Brazil, including in the 2022 presidential election, where it accurately predicted the outcome of the first round. Lula has a long history of political activism and was previously president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, during which he implemented policies focused on social inclusion and economic development. He is currently seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as President of Brazil.

How Sources Differ

Regarding Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, he spoke at the UN General Assembly in New York, stating: “We will not allow the enemies of democracy – internal or external – to attack the will of the people. In contrast, a Quaest poll released on Monday, September 21, 2026, showed Flavio Bolsonaro with 42% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 41% in a potential runoff. In contrast, a Datafolha poll released on Thursday, September 25, 2026, indicated that in the simulated runoff, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would receive 47% of the vote and Flavio Bolsonaro would receive 45%.

In contrast, a Datafolha poll released on Thursday, September 25, 2026, showed that in a first-round voting scenario, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads with 40% of the vote, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 36%, Augusto Cury with 5%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, and Renan Santos with 3%. In contrast, a previous Datafolha poll showed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 46% and Flavio Bolsonaro with 44% in a simulated runoff. In contrast, a previous Datafolha poll showed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 39% and Flavio Bolsonaro with 36% in a first-round scenario. In contrast, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with 46% and Flavio Bolsonaro with 45% in a potential runoff. Regarding Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, he posted on X that Flavio Bolsonaro wants to “hand our natural resources over to the United States” and stated, “If it’s up to him, Brazil will become a colony again.”