SAO PAULO — Flávio Bolsonaro is expected to be confirmed as the presidential candidate of the Liberal Party on Saturday. The 45-year-old senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro will assume the nomination at a convention in São Paulo as he prepares to challenge incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The Liberal Party gathering is scheduled to take place at Arena Mercado Livre Pacaembu in Sao Paulo. Argentina's President Javier Milei is scheduled to attend the event. Michelle Bolsonaro is not expected to attend the convention, continuing a period of public distance within the family.

Flávio Bolsonaro described himself as "disproportionally persecuted" during recent public appearances. His campaign has moved forward despite legal and political challenges surrounding his father. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for a coup attempt and is under house arrest.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes banned the former president from receiving any kind of political-electoral visits, including from heads of state, until after the October election. The justice revoked Jair Bolsonaro's visitation rights after Flávio Bolsonaro revealed a handwritten letter signed by his father calling on followers to support him in the race.

The senator has not yet secured a running mate for the general election. He attempted to recruit former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina for the position but was unsuccessful. Tereza Cristina's Popular Party is distancing itself from Flávio Bolsonaro.

Centrist parties do not support his campaign, narrowing his potential coalition. The Liberal Party supported Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election, but the party later faced internal divisions and lost influence after his election. In 2022, the Liberal Party's candidate for president, João Dória, received 16.8% of the vote. As of 2026, the Liberal Party has an approval rating of 9.2% according to the Datafolha poll.

Political consultant Thomas Traumann observed the difficulties facing the candidate. He has faced a problem each week, sometimes two problems, Traumann said. The consultant noted that Flávio Bolsonaro had previously attempted to present a softer image.

"He was showing himself as the moderate Bolsonaro, the one who took COVID vaccines, who is kind to his two daughters." The strategy appears to have shifted as the campaign approaches. "He has lost voters who are against the Workers' Party, but are also more moderate. Now he has the radical core of his campaign, and his attempt now is to stop that group from leaving him too." Flávio Bolsonaro has repeated claims regarding the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system that have been debunked.

Family tensions have also marked the pre-convention period. Michelle Bolsonaro recorded a video stating that Flávio Bolsonaro was disrespectful to her in a phone conversation. Flávio Bolsonaro apologized to his stepmother in a live broadcast.

Michelle Bolsonaro accepted the apology in a video published on Friday. "Let's sit down, let's talk, let's adjust details and together we will get a big army of people who do good to rescue our Brazil," Michelle Bolsonaro said. Several members of the U.S. President Donald Trump administration have promised to endorse Flávio Bolsonaro. The senator visited the White House and the U.S. State Department after a funding revelation. He admitted in May that he requested millions of dollars from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. Flávio Bolsonaro requested roughly $24 million from Vorcaro.

Trade tensions with the United States have introduced additional complexity to the political landscape. The U.S. administration announced 25 percent tariffs on many Brazilian goods following a yearlong investigation. The U.S. investigation alleged Brazil’s trade practices were unreasonable, citing favoring the Pix payment system, an 18 percent tariff on U.S. ethanol, and insufficient enforcement of deforestation laws.

"Now, with the imposition and re-imposition of trade tariffs, it’s been harder for the Bolsonaros to give a perspective in which Trump is looking out for Brazilians’ interests and not only Americans’ interests," said Brazilian geopolitics analyst Gustavo Blum. "His political movement, Bolsonarismo, is afraid that tariffs actually strengthen Lula’s support in the upcoming elections, because Brazilians are very disgusted with the US imposing tariffs," said Gimena Sanchez, director for the Andes at the Washington Office on Latin America.

Lula’s Workers’ Party will confirm the incumbent's reelection bid in a convention on Aug. 2 in Sao Paulo. The 80-year-old president currently holds an advantage in polling data.

A Quaest poll for Folha de S Paulo indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 45 percent to 37 percent in a potential second-round run-off. Brazil will hold the first round of the general election on October 4. A run-off election, if necessary, will be held on October 25.

The confirmation of Flávio Bolsonaro formalizes the primary opposition challenge to President Lula da Silva ahead of the October 4 general election. The Liberal Party's selection comes with declining public support for the party, which held a 9.2% approval rating in 2026. The absence of centrist party support and the lack of a confirmed running mate present structural hurdles for the campaign. Family discord and legal restrictions on Jair Bolsonaro further complicate the political dynamics surrounding the candidacy.

International factors also play a role in the electoral context. The U.S. administration's imposition of 25 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods has strained trade relations and altered the political calculus for candidates with ties to the Trump administration. These economic measures may influence voter sentiment regarding foreign policy and national interests. The outcome of the election could determine the direction of Brazil's trade policies and its diplomatic alignment with the United States.