The Australian Treasury released its seventh Intergenerational Report on Monday, September 21, 2026. The report projects that deaths in Australia will outnumber births for the first time by the mid-2060s.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that migration is necessary to support Australia's ageing population with falling birth rates. "Any objective observer would conclude that we need responsible levels of migration to support the ageing population," Chalmers said.

The demographic shift is underpinned by a projected decline in the fertility rate to 1.34 children per woman by 2065–66. Net overseas migration is projected to decline further before levelling off, according to the outlook.

The dependency ratio is projected to rise from 27.4 people aged 65 and over per 100 working-age Australians in 2025–26 to 40 by the mid-2060s. The number of Australians aged over 85 is projected to increase significantly by 2066.

The Treasury's 40-year outlook is built around five major shifts: the artificial intelligence revolution, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, aging and the care economy, and Australia's industrial transformation.

The Business Council of Australia stated that real gross domestic product per person is lower today than expected under the 2023 forecast. He also addressed social issues during the release of the report. He stated that monetised misogyny online is contributing to domestic violence.

"We're doing everything we can to curb domestic violence," he said. "Migration is a force for good in our economy and in our society," he said.

Why It Matters

The projection that deaths will outnumber births marks a structural change in Australia's demographic profile, with implications for the workforce and public services. The rising dependency ratio indicates that fewer working-age Australians will support a growing elderly population, placing pressure on healthcare and pension systems.

The report identifies migration as a critical lever to mitigate these pressures, even as net overseas migration is projected to decline. The divergence between current productivity outcomes and previous forecasts points to ongoing economic challenges that extend beyond long-term demographic trends.

Timeline

He added that any objective observer would conclude that responsible levels of migration are needed to support the ageing population. He also stated that the government is doing everything it can to curb domestic violence. Bran Black said that Australians are already paying the price for the failure to lift productivity through lower living standards.

What's New

Additional reporting confirms that the Australian Treasury's 2026 Intergenerational Report states that deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s. The report projects Australia's population will reach 39.3 million by 2065–66, which is 1.8 million lower than the projection in the 2023 report.

The Intergenerational Report projects real GDP per person will grow from $99,200 in the current financial year to $157,300 in 40 years under the baseline forecast. The fertility rate is projected to decline to 1.34 children per woman by 2065–66.

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