The number of days with the most severe conditions for fires will rise fastest in the Mediterranean, where the demographic cohort born from 2025 is projected to face five more years of lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather than those born in the two decades after the Second World War. People born in the Mediterranean in 2025 are projected to face up to 2.5 times the exposure to extreme fire weather than those born in 1950 under a scenario where global warming increases by 2.6C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100.

Portugal can expect extreme fire weather days to more than double under current climate policies, from 14 days per year between 1950 and 1970 to 32 days per year by 2100. Each additional degree of global warming by the end of the century adds around 272 days of extreme fire weather to the life of a Portuguese child born in 2025. A child born in Greece can expect to see 473 additional days of exposure to extreme fire weather during their lifetime under current policies. Children in Spain and Italy will see 448 additional days of exposure to extreme fire weather during their lifetime under current policies.

Rosa Pietroiusti is a climate researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel and lead author of the study. Researchers combined demographic data with outputs from global climate models and tallied the number of days when fire weather was more severe than the worst 5% of days for that region in the reference period from 1985 to 2014. The study considered 21 scenarios that resulted in 1.5C to 3.5C of global heating by the end of the century.

"Severe fire weather was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the kind of extreme fires that ravaged parts of Europe this summer," Pietroiusti said. "The meteorological conditions are an important element of fire risk – the possibility of that fire happening, being super-destructive and difficult to control, and spreading very fast." She added that these conditions do not guarantee a wildfire on every severe day, but indicate higher risk. "It doesn't mean that there [will be] a wildfire on all of those days, but it does mean that the risk is much higher."

Raúl Cordero is a climate scientist at the University of Groningen who was not involved in the research. He noted that recent events reflect the study's findings. "Just one month ago, inhabitants of central Europe experienced fire-weather conditions that their parents or grandparents had never encountered," Cordero said.

"Unfortunately, these conditions materialised in record-breaking fires in Belgium and western Germany." He stated that such emergencies were previously unimaginable for older generations in the region. "An unstoppable fire engulfing a town? This kind of emergency would have been unthinkable for Germans of older generations."

Thousands of people fled their homes in Germany in August due to wildfires. In southern Europe, the number of fires and the area burned declined over decades as authorities improved suppression capabilities, but the trend has reversed in recent years. Aggressive fire suppression has led to buildups of flammable vegetation that fuel ferocious blazes when climatological conditions are ripe.

Heatwaves and drought in Europe this summer led to wildfires across France, Spain, Italy and other countries. Wildfires burned over 668,000 hectares across the E.U. this summer. Belgium experienced its worst wildfire in a century this summer.

France and Spain recorded their largest wildfires since data collection began this summer. The severity of fire weather in the EU broke records this year. The area burned in the EU this year is shaping up to be the third-worst on record. The EU’s civil protection mechanism was activated nine times this summer to assist countries with firefighting resources.

A Danish firefighter pilot and a colleague died in Greece last month. Ursula von der Leyen is the president of the European Commission. She announced plans for the creation of a European firefighting fleet during her annual state of the union speech.

Von der Leyen proposed a new European Heatwave Plan. "I am so proud of Europe’s response, of our European assets flying across the continent," von der Leyen said. "But clearly, we need to think bigger and learn faster."

Long-term exposure to wildfire smoke is associated with higher risk of death, cognitive impairment, memory loss, and diseases in the lungs and heart. Immediate health impacts of wildfire smoke exposure include stinging eyes, wheezing, coughing, and shortness of breath. Europe has warmed twice as fast as the global average.

Temperatures in Europe have risen by approximately 0.56C per decade since the mid-1990s. A U.N. report published at the beginning of September found that the planet is set to pass the 1.5C threshold for global warming within the next few years.

Why It Matters

The study shows the intergenerational inequity of climate change, showing that younger Europeans will bear a disproportionate burden of extreme fire weather compared to previous generations. With Europe warming twice as fast as the global average and temperatures rising by approximately 0.56C per decade since the mid-1990s, the frequency and severity of fire-conducive conditions are accelerating. The findings indicate that without increased climate action, the health risks associated with wildfire smoke, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, will affect a larger portion of the population for longer durations.

The recent wildfire season, which saw record-breaking burns in France, Spain, and Belgium, reflects the immediate reality of these projections. The activation of the EU’s civil protection mechanism nine times this summer and the proposal for a European firefighting fleet by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reflect growing institutional recognition of the threat. However, independent scientists note that current policy trajectories still point toward increases in exposure, emphasizing that every fraction of a degree of avoided warming can reduce the hazard for future generations.

What's New

This report includes additional context on behavioral barriers to environmental action, noting that a study titled Mind the Gap: Why do people act environmentally and what are the barriers to pro-environmental behavior? Was published in 2002 in Environmental Education Research. The article also incorporates further statements from the study's lead author, Rosa Pietroiusti, who emphasized that the observed conditions are real-world risks rather than just simulations. "We're really seeing that these conditions are not just climate model projections and simulations and results, but they're really real world conditions and risks," she said.

Additional data specifies that children in Spain and Italy will see 448 additional days of exposure to extreme fire weather during their lifetime under current policies. Pietroiusti clarified the nature of the risk, stating, "It doesn't mean that there [will be] a wildfire on all of those days, but it does mean that the risk is much higher." She further noted the importance of mitigation efforts, saying, "While younger people will be more exposed than older generations under all pathways, every fraction of a degree of warming counts, and every fraction of a degree of avoided warming can reduce the hazard that we're exposing young people to during their lives." The report also notes that Ursula von der Leyen proposed a new European Heatwave Plan.