EINSTEIN CRATER — A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket upper stage is on a collision course with the moon. The impact is predicted to occur on August 5, 2026, at approximately 6:34 am UTC near Einstein Crater on the sunlit western limb.

The abandoned rocket segment measures approximately 40 feet (12 meters) in length and weighs approximately 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms). Space tracking expert Bill Gray predicts an impact speed of 5,400 mph (8,700 kph), which is approximately seven times the speed of sound. The impact will release energy equivalent to three tons of TNT.

It was not SpaceX’s intent for the rocket stage to hit the moon. The rocket upper stage launched two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025. One of the landers was Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, which became the first private spacecraft to achieve a fully successful lunar touchdown. The other lander was Japan-based ispace’s Resilience, which wrecked upon landing.

Space experts stated the crash could have been avoided if the upper stage had been nudged into orbit around the sun. This will be the second dead rocket known to crash into the moon accidentally. In March 2022, an unidentified SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage impacted the Moon near Hertzsprung Crater, creating a double crater approximately 30 meters in diameter, as confirmed by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. A Chinese rocket segment also crashed into the lunar far side in 2022, creating two craters.

Benjamin Fernando anticipates an impact crater nearly 90 feet (27 meters) across and 16 feet (5 meters) deep. The impact crater will be too small to see from Earth but visible to spacecraft. The impact flash will last less than a second, and experts state it will likely be too dim to see from Earth. The stream of ejected material could stretch for several miles into space and may remain visible to telescopes for tens of minutes.

NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will gather before-and-after images of the crash site. South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will also gather before-and-after images. Danuri will pass within a mile or two (a few kilometers) of the SpaceX rocket just two minutes before impact. The eastern portions of the U.S. and Canada, and much of South America, are expected to have the best views of the event, with the best odds of seeing the debris plume in the U.S. Southeast.

"Things are getting crowded up there," Bill Gray said. Gray plans to view the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada. He has previously tracked and predicted lunar impacts, including the March 2022 event.

"The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away," Benjamin Fernando said. "Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts."

"This impact will not be a problem," retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said. "But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue and we need not to leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind."

Einstein Crater, where the Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to impact, was first discovered and named in 1961 by the Soviet Luna 2 spacecraft, which was the first human-made object to reach the Moon's surface. The United States and China are racing to land astronauts on the moon in the next few years, while SpaceX and Blue Origin are competing to provide the lander for NASA’s Artemis IV mission.

NASA intentionally crashed its LCROSS spacecraft and upper stage into the moon in 2009. During the Apollo era, NASA hurled rocket sections and lunar modules into the moon for seismic measurements. Understanding the debris dynamics of accidental impacts helps calibrate models for future lunar deliveries and operations.

Why It Matters

This accidental collision provides data to calibrate ejecta-plume models, which experts state matters for every future delivery to the moon. Understanding the hazard debris impacts pose is critical as plans develop for long-term lunar bases where similar events would be an issue. The event allows scientists to study how displaced material behaves in low gravity without wind to clear the dust.