NEW JERSEY — The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center announced on July 9, 2026, that there is a 97% chance El Niño will continue into early spring 2027. The agency also stated there is an 81% chance the phenomenon will become “very strong” from October through December 2026.

In the July 9, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the Climate Prediction Center said sea surface temperatures were more than 1.0 degree Celsius above average across a large area of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The weekly Niño-3.4 index was +1.2 degrees Celsius in the July 9, 2026 update. The eastern Niño-1+2 region had reached +2.7 degrees Celsius in the July 9, 2026 update.

A July 20, 2026 NOAA Climate Prediction Center update showed weekly sea-surface temperature departures at +1.4 degrees Celsius in Niño 3.4. The same update showed weekly sea-surface temperature departures at +1.6 degrees Celsius in Niño 3. Departures in the Niño 1+2 region reached +2.8 degrees Celsius in the July 20, 2026 update.

NOAA reported low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific. The agency also reported enhanced convection over the central and east-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia.

Ken Graham, Director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said every El Niño is not the same and that each one is unique with its own imprint on weather. He said advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and core partners for what is to come.

Dan Leonard, director of forecasting for the U.S. at Metdesk, said the looming so-called “super El Niño” could “perhaps eclipse” the major events of 1982, 1997 and 2015. The World Meteorological Organization expects a strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific between July and September 2026. El Niño tends to be strongest during the winter months, when its global impacts are usually most pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere.

NOAA defines El Niño as the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern tied to warmer-than-average water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. An El Niño weather pattern occurs when the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken, allowing warmer ocean water to be pushed to the east, toward the west coast of the Americas. NOAA declares El Niño when the equatorial Pacific reaches at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several consecutive months, along with atmospheric changes tied to the Walker Circulation.

The Climate Prediction Center uses the Niño 3.4 index, a region covering the central Pacific, to monitor the strength of El Niño events. A value of +1.0 degrees Celsius or higher is typically used to indicate the presence of an El Niño. The 1997-1998 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region exceeding +2.0 degrees Celsius for several months. In 2015-2016, the El Niño event was classified as 'very strong' with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +1.5 degrees Celsius in the Niño 3.4 region.

During a typical El Niño winter, the jet stream over the North Pacific tends to shift south, bringing the storm track over the southern tier of the United States. NOAA says El Niño often leads to a warmer-than-usual winter over the northern U.S. NOCA states that even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere. El Niño events have been historically associated with increased global temperatures, with the 2015-2016 event contributing to record-breaking global temperatures in 2016, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA says El Niño impacts can include stronger upper-level winds that tend to suppress storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin. Two storms have formed in the tropics so far in the 2026 hurricane season. The Climate Prediction Center will unveil its latest forecasts in mid-August 2026.

The forecast of a potentially historic El Niño event carries implications for weather patterns across the United States and globally. Previous strong events, such as those in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, caused widespread weather disruptions and contributed to record global temperatures. The current trajectory suggests sea-surface temperatures are approaching or exceeding thresholds seen in those major historical events. The agency's continued monitoring through mid-August 2026 will provide further clarity on the intensity and duration of the pattern.