GAZA STRIP — The Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute disclosed a handwritten document by Yahya Sinwar dated August 24, 2022, that outlined a detailed plan for a Hamas surprise attack against Israel. The document detailed tactics, force deployments, and directives for hostage-taking, and acknowledged the possibility that Israel might respond with nuclear weapons.

Sinwar, who served as the second leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip from February 2017 until his death in an October 2024 clash with the Israel Defense Forces, wrote that the planned assault required achieving total surprise. “But first it will be surprised by the attack and descend into chaos,” Sinwar wrote. He warned that the window to maintain that element of surprise would last only six to ten hours.

The document described an invasion force of up to 10,000 Hamas fighters targeting more than 200 Israeli communities and IDF outposts. Sinwar envisioned 25 simultaneous breaches of the Israel-Gaza border fence to seize control of 25 different junctions, using well-trained squads of 100 fighters each. Specific deployments included 2,210 fighters assigned to attack 221 small communities in southern Israel, 1,600 fighters targeting eight larger communities, 1,200 fighters directed at Israeli cities, and 2,000 fighters slated to assault army bases.

Sinwar also issued directives regarding civilians encountered during the operation. “The goal is to expel the settlers with their vehicles,” he wrote. He specified that children and women should be prioritized for expulsion, while men aged 17 to 50 were to be taken hostage. Sinwar further ordered that all phones and additional documents carried by individuals be confiscated during the operation.

In the same document, Sinwar assessed Israel’s potential response. “Defense plan: The enemy will not hesitate to use all the means and weapons at its disposal, not only through attack but also by other means,” he wrote. “It may even use a nuclear bomb.” Despite that risk, Sinwar framed the operation in existential terms, writing, “This campaign is a battle of life or death, and there will be life, with Allah’s help.” He also proposed a symbolic follow-up measure: “As an additional precaution, a popular operation should be organized to return to the villages and symbolically reoccupy them.”

Why It Matters

The August 2022 document predates the October 7, 2023 attacks, which the IDF estimates involved approximately 5,600 invaders—including about 3,500 Hamas fighters, 580 fighters from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group, and 1,400 other Gazans. The 2022 plan’s level of operational detail and its alignment with aspects of the actual October 7 assault provide documented evidence of long-term strategic planning by Hamas leadership. The October 7 attacks marked the first large-scale invasion of Israeli territory since the 1948 Arab–Israeli War.