The USMCA trade agreement is scheduled for its first mandatory joint review on July 1, 2026. Donald Trump stated on June 10 that he did not know if he would renew the pact. "I don't know that I'm going to renew it," Trump said. "We're talking to them. We'll see if we do something." During a visit to Paris, Trump added, "I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it."

If the three countries fail to commit to an extension, the USMCA triggers an annual review process until 2036. Tony Stillo, director of Canada Economics at Oxford Economics, said, "We may get mandatory annual reviews, but that also means that uncertainty prevails, and that's a negative for decision-making for businesses." Stillo also stated, "It's a definite dampener, for sure," and noted that annual reviews would be "a big headwind." Vina Nadjibulla, vice president and head of research at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, said, "The most likely scenario is that it will go into an annual renewal process."

The USMCA came into effect on July 1, 2020, and is slated to expire after 16 years. Under the agreement, any party may give six months' notice to cancel the trade deal. Gary Hufbauer, an analyst at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, said, "There is a danger to US exports on terminating USMCA." Hufbauer added, "The bigger impact on the US is the disruption of our alliances and friendships around the world. The political side is far larger than the economic one in this."

Last year, North Dakota exported 89.9 percent of its goods to Canada and Mexico, while Michigan sent 64.9 percent, Iowa 50 percent, and Arizona 39 percent. These states voted for Trump in the 2024 election. U.S. exports of auto parts, aircraft, and oil products generated over $10 billion in sales to Canada and Mexico last year. Specifically, 75.6 percent of U.S. exports of parts and accessories for various automotive devices went to Canada and Mexico.