U.S. — Spending by U.S. households earning $200,000 or more annually grew by 6.5% in the year ending in the first quarter of 2026. This spending increased by 4% after accounting for inflation, while spending by the bottom 80% of households remained unchanged after inflation during the same period.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, stated: "The K-shaped economy—with the well-to-do thriving and everyone else lagging—remains firmly intact, and there is no sign that the trend line will reverse soon." Overall U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026, and the U.S. unemployment rate remained steady.

Since the pandemic, the top 20% of households have increased their spending by 8.3%. In contrast, personal outlay growth for the bottom 80% of households has been 4.5% over the same period, with inflation at 3.9% since the pandemic. Zandi noted: "This gap has persisted since the pandemic, which helps explain why most Americans are upset about their financial situations and the broader economy's performance."

The top 20% of households currently account for 60% of personal outlays in the U.S. This represents an increase from the period leading up to the internet bubble, when the top 20% of American consumers accounted for 50% of spending. According to Federal Reserve distributional accounts, nearly 90% of corporate equities and mutual funds are held by the top 20% of the income distribution.

Zandi stated: "This reflects the wealth effect, which holds that changes in household wealth affect consumers' willingness and ability to spend." He added: "If wealth increases, as it has over much of the past decade, consumers spend more of their income and the cash generated from capital gains realizations." The price-to-earnings multiple for the stock market is 19x. Zandi further stated: "It would be an overstatement to call the current stock market a bubble, but the warning signs are accumulating." He also said: "Based on historically tried-and-true measures of stock market valuation, there are reasons to be nervous."