U.S. — A survey released on June 25, 2026, indicated that chief financial officers (CFOs) at U.S. companies are increasingly prioritizing inflation as a concern and have lowered their economic growth forecasts. The survey found that two-thirds of companies reported increased production costs due to energy price shocks in the previous quarter.

Chief financial officers reduced their U.S. economic growth projections from 2.1% in the prior quarter to 1.8% in the current quarter. A total of 25% of surveyed firms identified inflation as their most pressing concern in the second quarter of 2026, an increase from 9.5% in the first quarter of 2026. One-third of the companies surveyed have passed these increased production costs on to consumers.

The survey, published by the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta and Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, included responses from 530 financial executives. These executives reported they had managed increased energy costs that resulted from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The main central route of the Strait of Hormuz trade corridor remains mined and closed.

Oil prices dropped to approximately $74 a barrel in June 2026, after peaking at about $115 a barrel in April 2026. On June 20, 2026, 35 ships traveled through the Strait of Hormuz, a reduction from 100 to 110 ships that transited the strait in late February 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects oil prices to stabilize at elevated levels rather than returning to prewar averages.

Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer indicated that if oil prices continue to rise or remain high, pass-through rates to consumers could increase to around 90%. Inflation has remained above 4%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. "We've been dealing with an inflation problem that's well above the target and has been going the wrong way," said Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Goolsbee added that the persistence of inflation in the services sector is concerning. "The fact that we've seen it in services, which historically is pretty persistent, is a little more disturbing," he said.

Why It Matters

The survey findings show the ongoing economic challenges faced by U.S. companies regarding inflation and energy costs. The increasing concern among CFOs about inflation, coupled with lowered growth projections, indicates a cautious outlook on the economic environment. The ability of companies to pass increased production costs to consumers suggests that inflationary pressures could continue to affect household budgets.

The role of energy costs, influenced by circumstances such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is a major factor in these economic trends. Projections of sustained high oil prices, along with inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's target, point to continuing economic adjustments for both businesses and consumers.