In early 2026, Bain & Co. forecasted that global personal luxury goods sales will grow between 1% and 4% during the year, with total sales projected to reach between €365 billion and €373 billion (US$413.6 billion and US$422.7 billion). The U.S. has emerged as the leading country for luxury goods growth, marking its first time in that position since 2021.

The report indicated that experiences are expected to outperform personal luxury goods, with projected growth of between 3% and 7% in 2026. Global luxury spending is forecasted to increase between 0% and 2% on a constant currency basis, reaching a base case figure of between €1.44 trillion and €1.47 trillion.

In contrast to the projected growth, the luxury market experienced a contraction in previous years. In 2024, the luxury market shrunk by 2% and saw a loss of approximately 50 million consumers. Spending on personal luxury goods in 2025 dropped 2% at current rates, falling to €358 billion from €364 billion in 2024. However, at a constant rate, personal luxury goods spending in 2025 grew by 1% year-on-year. Global luxury spending in 2025 was broadly flat, landing at €1.44 trillion from €1.48 trillion in 2024.

US-based luxury brand revenues rose between 10% and 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2025, at a constant currency rate. Luxury online sales in China climbed between 25% and 35% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. The Chinese luxury market has demonstrated quarter-on-quarter growth since the third quarter of 2025. Conversely, international tourist spend for Europe dropped 20% in February 2026, and the Gulf consumer base contracted between 15% and 25% in the first quarter of 2026.

Bookings in dining, leisure, and entertainment are up around 30% in 2026, and travel to nontraditional locations has increased by 20%. Luxury experiences are outperforming personal luxury goods for consumer sentiment by 150% in 2026. Claudia D'Arpizio, Senior Partner at Bain & Co., stated, "What we're seeing across experiential luxury this year is resilience concentrated in the categories that offer something money can't easily replicate: time, access and meaning." She added, "Consumers aren't simply spending more; they're spending differently, in pursuit of moments that feel personal and authentic."

Jewelry is fueling growth within luxury personal goods, followed by apparel, eyewear, and fragrances. Around half of consumers consider resale options before purchasing new goods. Bain assessed its base case scenario for luxury growth with a 70% probability. There is a 20% probability for better circumstances that could push luxury growth to between 4% and 6% in 2026.