U.S. — Recent college graduates in the U.S. face an unemployment rate of 5.6%, unchanged from one year ago. This diverges from the overall worker unemployment rate of 4.2%, a difference that emerged around April 2022.

This divergence occurred approximately six months before the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. Torsten Slok, chief economist, stated, "Many have been quick to blame the gap on ChatGPT's November 2022 release and the broader rise of AI." Slok added, "But the AI-exposed sectors where these graduates cluster are also the most sensitive to Fed tightening, trade-war uncertainty and slowing immigration, so the entry-level squeeze is far more likely a product of the general low-hire, low-fire labor market than of a technology that companies had barely begun to deploy when the gap emerged." He noted, "The slowdown in employment in AI-exposed sectors is likely driven by some combination of all these factors rather than only AI."

A Stanford study published last year reported that AI had a substantial effect on entry-level workers in the U.S. labor market, noting a 13% relative decline in early-career worker employment. The Yale Budget Lab reported no meaningful changes in job churn or the duration of unemployment in jobs with either high or no exposure to AI. Data from the iCIMS Workforce Report indicates that 51% of Gen Z individuals perceive AI as the greatest threat to their job security.

Glassdoor's 2026 Worklife Trends Midyear Check-In showed that 53% of discussions about AI were negative, while 43% were positive. In the previous year, 41% of these discussions were negative and 55% were positive. AI-exposed jobs showed a higher correlation in employment trends with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which began in early 2022.

Computer scientist Cal Newport criticized the framing of AI discussions. Newport stated, "This could have been a period of hopeful innovation, but instead our emotions are being manipulated by Silicon Valley's self-serving and morally untenable addiction to doom trolling." He added, "The harm it's causing to the public's mental health has arguably outweighed the benefits that A.I. has so far delivered." Newport concluded, "This communication strategy has to stop." Laura Ullrich, director of economic research, observed, "Oftentimes when there is heightened uncertainty, it's just difficult for businesses and people to make decisions in real time." She added, "And so that slows down employment."

Why It Matters

The persistent unemployment rate for recent college graduates stands at 5.6% and has not decreased in a year. This rate is higher than the overall U.S. unemployment rate of 4.2%. The divergence first appeared in April 2022, predating the widespread public awareness of advanced AI tools like ChatGPT.