The U.S. Department of Agriculture released an updated commodities forecast on June 20, 2026, predicting that energy and fertilizer prices will not decrease substantially until 2027. The forecast follows recent global supply improvements, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and news of a tentative peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which have led to a decrease in fertilizer prices.

Ryan Poe, a fifth-generation wheat farmer in Hartline, Washington, purchased the majority of his fertilizer for the year prior to the recent price changes. He spent approximately 23% more on fertilizer in the spring of 2026 compared to the period before the war. "Maybe a global supplier of fertilizer sees that kind of instant price change," Poe said. "But for me on the farm there's been no change in fertilizer price." He noted, "It's the sticker shock of, okay, yeah this is definitely higher than last year."

Many farmers in the Midwest locked in fertilizer prices before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Dave Walton, a soybean farmer in Iowa, purchased less fertilizer this year and plans to use less to extend supplies. "Every time I pull a tractor into a field it just cost more because everything has gone up," Walton said. "The squeeze on our margin is real." Walton attributed his ability to remain in business partly to recent federal relief aid. "I don't think it's hyperbole to say that there could be quite a number of operations that are basically one bad year away from getting out of business," he said.

Poe faced flat wheat prices and rising equipment costs due to inflation and trade policies prior to the Middle East turmoil. "It's just not a fun time to be in ag," Poe said. "It's hard when you see people around you that are at that point of giving up." Many farmers in the Midwest source a large portion of their fertilizer from Canada. The Trump administration reached a tentative deal with China at one point, which resulted in large purchases of soybeans.