U.S. — The Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) forecasts that U.S. home prices will flatline over the next two years. The MBA also projected housing supply and demand between 2026 and 2035, citing slowing household formation due to demographic shifts.

National home prices increased 55% between 2020 and 2025. In 2024, housing prices rose 4%. The MBA forecasted a 1% rise in housing prices in 2026.

The U.S. housing supply deficit reached 4.03 million homes last year. For the period between 2026 and 2035, the MBA estimated housing supply could grow by 10.6 million to 14.6 million units, while projected housing demand is around 11 million units.

Household formation is expected to slow over the next two decades. This slowdown is attributed to population aging, low fertility rates, smaller young adult cohorts, and reduced immigration. Birth rates in the U.S. have been declining for nearly two decades. Last year, more people left the U.S. than moved there, a net migration decline that occurred in response to the Trump administration's tightening anti-immigrant restrictions. Most forecasts, including from the Congressional Budget Office, project net migration to return to positive levels in coming years.

Baby boomers account for 42% of home purchases and 52% of home sales. Baby boomer empty nesters own almost twice the share of large homes as millennial families. Approximately one third of baby boomers say they never plan to sell their home, while 30% do not plan on selling their home for at least another decade.

The share of first-time homebuyers is 21%, which is the lowest proportion in more than four decades. "Maybe for the younger generations, there will be enough homes, and we'll see maybe a little bit of a shift here, but for the late 30-year-olds, or early 40-year-olds, I don't know that it changes all that much," Moody's deputy chief economist Cristian DeRitis said.