NEW SOUTH WALES — The New South Wales state budget forecasts annual gambling tax revenue will rise to $4.9 billion by 2030, with revenue from all gambling taxes projected to increase from $3.8 billion in 2025-26 to $4.7 billion by 2029-30.

The government expects to collect $2.2 billion from poker machines in 2029-30, up from $1.6 billion in the current financial year. Revenue from poker machines in pubs and hotels is forecast to rise annually by 7.5%. NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey stated that Treasury had not modeled the effect of any gambling reform on future tax revenues. He denied that the lack of modeling meant there would be no further changes to curb gambling. "The process by which we construct modeling for a budget does reflect policy settings at the time," Mookhey said. He added it was Treasury's job to "call the numbers as we see them."

Rev Tim Costello, chief advocate for the Alliance for Gambling Reform, criticized the budget figures. Costello stated that the figures showed "Labor has a gambling problem." He added, "This is a terrible fail by the Minns government and a breach of trust." Premier Chris Minns promised before the 2023 election to reduce the number of poker machines and implement a cashless gaming trial. The state's crime commission had recommended cashless gaming cards for harm reduction and anti-money laundering, but Labor has not committed to implementing them following a 2024 trial.

The NSW government has not responded to 30 recommendations made by the Independent Panel for Gaming reform in November 2024. These recommendations included a statewide "centralised account-based gaming system". Analysis by the Wesley Mission indicates gamblers are on track to lose over $10 billion to poker machines in 2026. The annual growth rate for profits in registered clubs is approximately 4%, while Treasury forecasts predict an 8% annual increase in profits for pubs and hotels until 2027-28.

There are nearly 90,000 poker machines in New South Wales, accounting for about half of the nationwide total. Poker machines in clubs are subject to a tax concession expected to cost the NSW government over $1 billion in the current financial year. Minns stated the government lowered the statewide limit on poker machines from 99,000 to 95,739. The government also revoked 670 exemptions to a mandatory gaming machine shutdown between 4 am and 10 am. The cash input limit for new poker machines will decrease from $5,000 to $500 starting July 1. "I just do not think it is reasonable to say that the government has done nothing," Minns said.