WASHINGTON, D.C. — Landon Derentz, vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council, warned that current oil and gas market prices do not reflect the full impact of supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. "There is a distance between the physical market and the gap of losing 10 to 13 million barrels a day, and where the market is actually pricing the consequences of the current shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," Derentz said.
About one-fifth of the world's gas and oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway has faced recent disruptions, including an attack on the Mayuree Naree, a Thai-flagged bulk carrier.
Brent crude surged past $115 per barrel last week before retreating slightly. At the time of publication, Brent crude was trading at $106 per barrel.
"For me, there is still a bit of a transient nature to some of the price markers around the world, in particular Brent crude, because having a shortfall -- a market disruption of the scale we are seeing right now -- for any longer duration is going to lead to much higher prices over time," he said.
The war with Iran continues, and securing access to the Strait of Hormuz is a key objective. U.S. President Donald Trump called on NATO allies and major Asian partners, including China, to help secure the maritime corridor. Responses to the request were mixed among the invited allies.
There were attacks on key infrastructure in Iran and Qatar. "QatarEnergy has announced that repairs could take between three to five years, and the amount of supply that is out is about 25 percent of its production," he said. About 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas is exported from Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz. Ras Laffan Industrial City accounts for roughly 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas supply.
"Liquefied natural gas is a major part of the global economy today. There are really three major exporters of liquefied natural gas: the U.S., Australia, and Qatar. Russia is also a significant exporter," he said. Derentz served as White House energy director during the first Trump administration.
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