CHERNIHIV REGION — Ukrainian security forces have reinforced fortifications along the northern border with Belarus, constructing anti-tank ditches, concrete obstacles, and barbed wire. This development occurred as personnel operating along the border reported a 20 percent increase in Russian intelligence drone flights over the border since January.

Russia has constructed five new drone bases near its border with Belarus and is also building a large drone base at Tsymbulovo in the Oryol region. Kyiv's forces have intercepted over 500 drones in the Chernihiv region since January. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referenced increased activity near the border with Belarus.

Belarus has expanded logistics routes, training grounds, and communications infrastructure that could support Russian military operations. Maksym Pleshko, a politician and political scientist, stated, "Russia is in a strategic stalemate. Russia faces serious problems on the frontlines because we are beginning to win this war, and Lukashenko's use of his narratives and propaganda is precisely an attempt to somehow justify and resolve this situation. And Putin is pressuring Lukashenko for greater cooperation, for greater involvement of his military system in the war against Ukraine, so Lukashenko is trying to justify this to his domestic audience." Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Moscow is increasingly dragging Belarus into its war against Ukraine, turning it into a platform for aggression against Europe as well.

Russia and Belarus conducted joint nuclear exercises earlier this year. Robert Brovdi, unmanned forces commander, stated, "If we are talking about him [Lukashenko] involved in a potential action against Ukraine, politically it would be the end of him, not least after all that has been said about 500 targets in Belarus that Ukraine is ready to hit." There is no verified evidence of large-scale troop formations by Russian or Belarusian forces near the border.