YEREVAN — Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan pursues European integration. Russian authorities announced a ban last month on imports from the Abovyan cognac factory and two other Armenian producers, citing sanitary concerns as the official reason. This follows recent Russian restrictions on imports of Armenian flowers, fish, and fruit. Observers interpreted the import ban as political pressure aimed at discouraging Armenia from aligning with European and U.S. institutions before its elections.

Approximately 40 percent of Armenia's exports are shipped to Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned last month that Armenia could face consequences similar to the conflict in Ukraine if it continues pursuing European integration. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Security Council Chair, referenced the 1940 assassination of Leon Trotsky, implying potential consequences for Pashinyan.

Pashinyan's Civil Contract party gained political control in 2018 and has pursued foreign policy alignment with European institutions, with Pashinyan stating that Armenia seeks membership in the European Union. Relations between Armenia and Russia deteriorated after Azerbaijan seized control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023. Russia maintained a peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh but did not intervene militarily during Azerbaijan's offensive. Armenian officials publicly questioned the effectiveness of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), and Pashinyan suspended Armenia's participation in the CSTO last year.

Security policy researcher Areg Kochinyan said, "Russians are concerned about losing, in their understanding, yet another country that they see as their rightful sphere of interest. And they are acting on it." Armenia hosted a European Political Community summit in April, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended. U.S. Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio have visited Yerevan. Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, stated, "Moscow feels it is losing Armenia, that the country has got a bit too big for its boots. So Moscow is trying to force Pashinyan to make a choice for Russia."

Samvel Karapetyan leads the opposition Stronger Armenia party and advocates for closer political and economic ties between Armenia and Russia. Karapetyan, a billionaire of Armenian and Russian descent, is currently under house arrest on charges related to advocating for the seizure of state power. Recent opinion polls project Pashinyan's Civil Contract party will receive approximately 30 percent of the vote, while Karapetyan's Stronger Armenia party is projected to receive approximately 10 percent.

De Waal added, "Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is likely to win the elections more or less by default. Not because the prime minister is still popular, he isn't, but because Armenia's opposition is even less competent or impressive and too associated with Russia."