EQUATORIAL PACIFIC — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an 82% chance that El Niño would emerge between May and July. The U.N. World Meteorological Organization stated there is a 90% chance that El Niño will continue until at least November.

Current forecasts project the 2023–2024 El Niño will be strong or very strong. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said, "The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even further and cross borders with devastating speed."

El Niño is characterized by a weakening of trade winds and the movement of warm Pacific water toward the Americas. Robert Burgman, an atmospheric science professor at Florida International University, said, "El Niño is the warm phase of a natural seesaw in the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures." Conversely, La Niña is an opposing pattern where strong trade winds push warm water to Asia and generate colder water on the Pacific coast of the Americas.

El Niño events typically last for several months and usually intensify in the fall before peaking in winter. Fall to spring El Niño conditions can bring increased rain and potential flooding to the southern U.S. El Niño can cause warmer and drier winters in the northern U.S. Burgman said that El Niño could cause droughts and fire risks in Indonesia, Australia, the Amazon, and Southern Africa, while increasing rain in South America and East Africa.

Mark Cane, an oceanographer at Columbia University, said, "This year's El Niño will add to food shortages worldwide. Getting fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz would help." El Niño generally correlates with a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and a more active Pacific hurricane season.