SVALBARD — Norwegian Defence Minister Tore Sandvik warned that if Russia gains control of the Bear Gap, it could use hypersonic missiles against NATO countries including London, Norway, and Denmark. The Bear Gap is a strategic naval chokepoint in the Arctic Ocean, spanning roughly 400 miles between the North Cape of mainland Norway and Bear Island, the southernmost tip of Norway’s Svalbard archipelago.

The Bear Gap lies between the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea, making it one of the key maritime routes through which Russian naval vessels and submarines can move from their Arctic bases into the North Atlantic. It is located directly west of Russia’s Kola Peninsula, home to the bulk of Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent and the headquarters of its Northern Fleet.

Kristian Atland, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), stated that the Bear Gap “serves as a key gateway for naval movements and maritime surveillance in the High North.” He explained that Russia views the Bear Gap as integral to its “Bastion Defence” strategy to protect its Northern Fleet’s ballistic missile submarines in the Barents Sea. Atland warned that Russian control of the Bear Gap could enable Russia to limit NATO’s ability to deploy anti-submarine warfare assets into the Barents Sea to detect, locate, and track Russian strategic submarines.

Gunhild Hoogensen Gjorv, professor at The Arctic University of Norway, said most Northern European countries would be within striking range of Russian surface vessels and attack submarines deployed near or beyond the Bear Gap due to the long-range capabilities of Russian missile systems. She stated that if Russia controlled the Bear Gap, it could fire missiles from sea-going vessels and technically hit the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Nordic countries. Gjorv added that if Russia decided to attack surrounding nations from the Bear Gap, it would constitute all-out war, and it is difficult to see Russia prepared to think in those terms.

Russia does not currently exert control over the Bear Gap, which lies within an area dominated by NATO members Norway, Canada, and other allied states. However, Russia maintains military capabilities near the Bear Gap, including its Northern Fleet and modernized Arctic bases, ports, and airfields. Russia has spent years rebuilding Arctic bases and strengthening its Northern Fleet.

In response to heightened activity, the Norwegian government announced in December the acquisition of two German-built submarines, citing “activity of Russian forces in the North Atlantic” as the reason. In February, the UK announced it would double the number of troops stationed in Norway to 2,000 over the next three years and take on a role in a NATO operation in the Arctic. NATO members have expanded their own military presence across the Arctic region.