DUBAI — Real estate transaction volumes in the UAE fell 37% year-on-year in the first 12 days of March 2026 and dropped 49% month-on-month, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs. Off-plan property deals in Dubai declined 21% month-on-month in March 2026 to 9,368 transactions, per data from the Dubai Land Department.

Fitch Ratings forecast in 2025 that Dubai real estate prices would decline 15% between July 2025 and the end of 2026. The agency later said weaker economic activity, reduced tourism, and slower population growth would add further pressure on both residential and commercial real estate markets, resulting in a larger correction than initially projected.

At the end of May 2026, sellers had cut listed prices by a combined AED2.36 billion ($643 million) across 3,292 properties in Dubai, according to LuxuryPriceDrops.com. Off-plan secondary apartments are trading 10% to 15% below original purchase values. The largest single price reduction was for a property in Damac Lagoons, which fell 61.2%, or AED300 million ($82 million).

"Lots of opportunistic investors jumped on the off-plan bandwagon, assuming that prices would keep going up on a monthly basis, and are now super exposed," Mario Volpi, senior sales manager at Eva Real Estate agency in Dubai, told Fortune. "Many of them don’t have the inclination, the money, or the stomach to pay for the next instalment or the next few instalments. Buyers that are looking for distressed sales can find some good deals in that space."

Anton Lopatin, a Senior Director covering UAE banks at Fitch Ratings, told Fortune, "We have analyzed the loan books of all rated UAE banks, and corporate real estate in particular poses the biggest risk among the areas of the economy most sensitive to conflict-related spillovers." He added, "While we do not see a big pressure being exerted on the banking sector’s asset quality for now, we think that corporate real estate loans are likely to be the main source of new Stage 3 loans if the conflict is prolonged." Stage 3 loans are credit-impaired or defaulted loans.

Dubai’s development pipeline includes 65,000 apartments and 12,500 villas scheduled for delivery by year-end 2026, though many are now expected to be delayed to 2027 due to supply chain bottlenecks. Moody’s noted on May 7, 2026, that "a sharp slowdown or reversal in population inflows would exacerbate absorption risks at a time of rising completed supply."

Dubai has scrapped the AED 750,000 ($204,184) minimum property value requirement for individual buyers to qualify for a two-year residency visa.