WASHINGTON, D.C. — As of late May 2026, the 30-year Treasury bond yield reached 5.2%, its highest level in 19 years, while the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.7%, the highest since mid-2007. The U.S. national debt stood at $39 trillion, with annual federal interest expenses nearing $1 trillion—exceeding Medicare spending and equaling two-thirds of Social Security outlays.

The federal government is expected to borrow nearly $10 trillion in the 12 months following May 2026, including $7.5 trillion to refinance maturing debt and $2 trillion to cover the deficit. Treasury Bills yielded 3.7% as of May 2026, 18 times higher than the approximately 0.2% yield during 2021 through early 2022. The average interest rate on outstanding Treasury Notes was 3.23% as of that date.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, if Treasury yields remain at late May 2026 levels, interest expenses would consume 30% of all federal revenues by 2036, up from 14% in 2026. Projected annual interest costs would reach $2.5 trillion by then, making interest payments the second-largest federal budget category and exceeding Medicare spending by one-third. Interest costs per U.S. household are projected to rise from $7,900 in 2025 to $17,000 by 2036 under sustained high-yield scenarios. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget states, "The best way to accomplish these goals is through deficit reduction, which can help the Federal Reserve lower rates by reducing near-term inflationary pressures, put downward pressure on long-term rates by reducing economic crowd-out, and reduce the debt burden on which the government must pay interest." The group also warns that sustained Treasury yields at or above late May 2026 levels could "spark a fiscal crisis."

The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields will average about 4.65% and 4.15%, respectively, through fiscal year 2036. As of May 26, 2026, yields declined slightly following news of a potential end to the Iran War, leaving them about 35 basis points above CBO forecasts.