NEW YORK — Exxon Mobil warned that oil inventories will fall to record low levels in the coming weeks, forcing prices to spike and curbing demand. The forecast came from Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman during a conference hosted by Bernstein in New York.
"We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean really, really low levels," Chapman said. "I don't know, whether it's two to three weeks or three to four weeks. What I'm really saying is, once you get to the minimum inventory levels and all-time low inventory levels, there's only one way to go. That's the situation."
Chapman projected that the price of physical Brent oil cargoes would surge to $150 to $160 per barrel when inventories bottom out. He argued that such a spike would ultimately trigger demand destruction, bringing the market back into balance.
According to Chapman, existing oil stockpiles have so far softened the impact of supply constraints, but that buffer is rapidly disappearing. His remarks align with a recent warning from the International Energy Agency, which reported earlier this month that global inventories are being depleted at a record pace.
Chapman’s comments come as oil futures remain well below the levels he anticipates for physical cargoes. On Thursday, Brent futures for July delivery, the nearest contract, closed under $94 per barrel. He and other oil industry executives have warned for two months that the crude futures market is not reflecting the scale of the disruption triggered by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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