SOUTH CHINA SEA — Richard Dunley published a commentary titled 'A Sea Control Revolution?' on May 28, 2026, examining shifts in maritime strategy in the context of rising tensions in the South China Sea and growing global reliance on ocean-based infrastructure. The analysis explores how traditional assumptions about sea control are being challenged by new geopolitical and economic realities.

According to Dunley’s commentary, navies are increasingly expected to exert greater levels of control over more of the world’s oceans, more of the time. This stands in contrast to traditional maritime strategy, which holds that even the most powerful states can achieve sea control only in limited areas for limited periods. Historically, sea control was considered relevant primarily in wartime, when one state could exclude another from using certain waters.

Dunley notes that under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, coastal states have been granted exclusive economic zones extending 200 nautical miles from their shores. These zones now cover roughly 40% of the world’s seas and oceans, and states are expected to exercise a form of control there during both peace and wartime. However, a growing trend sees countries reinterpreting economic rights within these zones as closer to full sovereignty.

China and other claimant states in the South China Sea are asserting rights that exceed those granted under the Convention. Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels are occupying features in the South China Sea, reinforcing these expansive claims. Dunley observes that the language of sovereignty and the concept of 'blue territory' are increasingly used to justify control over areas once regarded as global commons.

The commentary also highlights the rising strategic importance of critical maritime infrastructure, such as submarine data cables and offshore hydrocarbon resources. Virtually all such infrastructure lies outside territorial waters, and much extends beyond exclusive economic zones. As a result, nations increasingly expect their armed forces to control the seas through which this infrastructure runs, adding pressure on naval forces to maintain persistent presence and oversight far from their own coasts.