Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence95%
Russia’s advances along the over 1,000-kilometer front line in Ukraine have ground to a near halt recently.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence95%
Ukraine’s armed forces have launched successful counterstrikes and reclaimed some ground.
Institute for the Study of War
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"The character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now," the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Russian forces’ rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence95%
Kyiv has rejected Putin’s demands to withdraw from the eastern Donetsk region as a condition for a ceasefire.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence90%
Ukraine has significantly expanded its long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities and arms factories, inflicting increasing damage.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence95%
Putin scaled down the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, fearing Ukrainian drone strikes.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence95%
A massive drone attack on Moscow's suburbs killed three people.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence95%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks were "significantly changing the situation — and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war."
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence95%
Russian lawmakers approved a bill requiring the country’s banks to bear the cost of installing drone-jamming systems on their premises.
Thomas Withington, analyst at the Royal United Services Institute
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"From Russia’s perspective, these attacks are just going to get worse," said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Thomas Withington, analyst at the Royal United Services Institute
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Ukraine's increasingly audacious drone attacks are "exacting not only a political but an economic cost in Russia."
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Russia’s economy has stagnated as the initial boost from massive military spending has petered out.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
The Russian government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the budget deficit under control.
Nigel Gould-Davies, analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"War-fueled high prices of capital, labor and goods, as well as rising taxes, have begun to depress the civilian sectors," resulting in "a dual economy of overheated military output and civilian stagnation," Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence90%
Russia has relied on volunteer soldiers to fight the war, offering them comparatively high wages and other benefits.
Nigel Gould-Davies, analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence85%
"There are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit," Nigel Gould-Davies argued.
Nigel Gould-Davies, analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence85%
To sustain the war, the Kremlin will have to forcibly mobilize human and material resources, requiring it to "curtail the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, labor freedom, and freedom of movement," Nigel Gould-Davies said.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence85%
Some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin have started to openly criticize government policies.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
Russian authorities restricted cellphone internet and blocked popular messaging apps, causing open grumbling among millions.
Natalya Kasperskaya, IT entrepreneur
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Natalya Kasperskaya, a prominent IT entrepreneur and a staunch Kremlin supporter, harshly criticized the shutdowns and attempts to block virtual private networks, warning that they cause massive damage to the tech sector.
Tatyana Stanovaya, Russia expert and founder of R.Politik newsletter
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
Tatyana Stanovaya, a Russia expert who founded the R.Politik newsletter, noted that spreading Ukrainian drone attacks, mobile internet shutdowns, and rising taxes have eroded Putin’s standing.
Tatyana Stanovaya, Russia expert and founder of R.Politik newsletter
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence90%
"The gradual fading of Putin’s credibility is real," Tatyana Stanovaya said.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence85%
Russian opinion polls, including one by a government-run pollster, recorded a dip in Putin’s approval ratings in early spring.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence85%
Putin’s approval ratings rose slightly in May in a state-controlled poll after the organization changed its methodology to include face-to-face interviews.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence75%
Many observers believe Russian polling numbers may be inflated amid a widespread crackdown on dissent.
Alexander Baunov, analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence85%
"Putin is losing his magic," Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary.
Alexander Baunov, analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence85%
"Power remains undivided in his hands, but its spell is fading. Even loyalists complain about the mounting restrictions and repression, and once-upbeat businesspeople are now despondent," Alexander Baunov wrote.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence80%
On May 22, a Ukrainian drone attack on a college dormitory in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine killed 21 people, according to Moscow.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence90%
Putin ordered a massive missile strike on Kyiv and its surrounding region in response to the May 22 drone attack.
Relevance: primary · Type: event
Confidence90%
Russia’s barrage on Kyiv involved the new hypersonic Oreshnik missile, killed two people, injured scores, and destroyed or damaged many buildings.
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence95%
The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will launch "consistent and systematic" strikes on Kyiv to target drone-making facilities and "decision-making centers."
Relevance: primary · Type: action
Confidence95%
The Russian Foreign Ministry urged foreign diplomats to leave Kyiv — a demand rejected by Ukraine’s allies.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence90%
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn him of the coming strikes and push for the evacuation of U.S. diplomats.
Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence95%
"The danger in all of these wars as they continue and then they go on is that they always have the threat of escalation, of spreading into something new," Marco Rubio told reporters after the call.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence85%
The delivery of U.S.-made Patriot missiles to Ukraine has been delayed.
Relevance: supporting · Type: background
Confidence85%
Ukraine desperately needs Patriot missiles to fend off Russian attacks.
Sergei Poletaev, military analyst
Relevance: supporting · Type: quote
Confidence85%
Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev said Russia sees the shortage of air defense assets in Kyiv as an opportunity.
Relevance: supporting · Type: event
Confidence90%
Russia conducted massive drills of its nuclear forces earlier in May 2026.
Relevance: supporting · Type: action
Confidence85%
Moscow issued a series of belligerent statements warning Kyiv’s European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks.
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