PERSIAN GULF — The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed up to 14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets, disrupting flows from the Persian Gulf due to ongoing conflict in the region. Despite this disruption, global oil prices have generally hovered around US$100 per barrel.

The Americas are expected to produce around 30 million barrels of oil per day later in 2026, approaching pre-war production levels previously seen from OPEC nations. According to the International Energy Agency, virtually all global oil demand growth in 2026 could be met by rising supply from North and South American countries such as the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.

The United States remains the world’s largest oil producer, with total liquid hydrocarbon output reaching nearly 22 million barrels a day in April. U.S. crude exports that month hit a record 6.44 million barrels per day, and nearly 800,000 barrels per day of additional U.S. oil export dock capacity is scheduled to come online in 2026.

Brazil has expanded its offshore production capacity, adding eight new floating production vessels in recent years with a combined capacity approaching 1.5 million barrels per day. The country’s oil output is expected to rise sharply again in 2026, following Petrobras’ early launch of a new project at the Búzios field off Rio de Janeiro, which began production five months ahead of schedule.

Guyana’s oil output has reached approximately 900,000 barrels per day and could nearly double by the end of the decade. Venezuela has also increased its oil exports in response to elevated global prices.

Oil production costs in the Persian Gulf remain among the lowest globally, with some Saudi Arabian fields extracting crude for less than $10 a barrel and regional averages estimated at roughly $27 per barrel. In contrast, much of North American shale production requires prices between $50 and $65 a barrel to remain profitable. The combined output from the Americas is now effectively a swing producer, providing flexibility during supply crises and geopolitical shocks.