TAIWAN STRAIT — Acting U.S. Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao said on May 22 that weapons sales to Taiwan are on pause to preserve munitions for 'Epic Fury,' described as the ongoing U.S. war against Iran. The decision halts deliveries under the framework of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which was enacted by Congress in 1979.

The TRA obligates the U.S. to provide Taiwan with arms “necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.” The law also requires the U.S. to maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion that would jeopardize Taiwan’s security. The TRA would allow the U.S. to delay or cancel an arms sale if doing so would improve Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.

China now has quantitative advantages over Taiwan in major weapons systems and comparable or near-comparable military technology in many areas. Chinese warships outnumber Taiwan’s by a factor of four, and China has six times Taiwan’s inventory of combat aircraft. The U.S. Department of Defense’s annual reports on Chinese military power noted as early as 2004 that the cross-Strait balance of power was steadily shifting in China’s favor.

China’s defense industrial base can out-produce the U.S. in ships, aircraft, and missiles, giving it a decisive advantage in a protracted conflict. Chinese missiles can also strike U.S. bases in Asia and the Pacific and target moving U.S. warships far beyond the horizon.

The U.S. has provided no ships to Taiwan since delivering two frigates in 2017–2018. Since 2000, it has supplied Taiwan with 12 maritime patrol aircraft and is working to deliver 66 new F-16 fighters. The U.S. has also supplied a few hundred Patriot missile interceptors but has not helped Taiwan build a Golden Dome missile defense system.

The 1982 U.S.-China Joint Communique stated that the U.S. “does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan” and “intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution.” In a memo commenting on the 1982 Communique, U.S. President Ronald Reagan said, “any reduction of such arms sales depends upon peace in the Taiwan Strait.”