WASHINGTON — GasBuddy forecasts that U.S. gas prices will average $4.80 a gallon between Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day, with the potential to test the all-time record of $5.02 a gallon if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed late into the summer. The national average for a regular gallon stood at $4.564 on Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association, up about $1.38 from a year earlier, a 43.4% increase.

Gas prices rose after the United States and Israel began launching attacks on Iran at the end of February. The Iran war is in its 12th week, and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally accommodates a fifth of the world's oil supply, has largely stalled. Global oil prices have climbed during the conflict. "This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years," said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy.

"Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they're going this summer, and even after the strait reopens, it could take a year or more for prices to fully recover," De Haan said.

Every U.S. state had an average gas price above $4 less than a week before Memorial Day weekend. The previous record for the highest average price of a regular gallon was set on June 14, 2022, at just over $5. U.S. environmental regulations require gas stations to switch to a more expensive summer blend that can add up to 15 cents per gallon to the cost of a fill-up, and stronger seasonal demand can push prices up by another 5 to 15 cents a gallon.

In GasBuddy's 2026 pre-Memorial Day survey, 56% of Americans said they planned to hit the road between Memorial Day and Labor Day, 53% cited cost as a top travel consideration, 67% said gas prices were directly impacting their driving plans, and 36% said rising costs were causing them to take fewer road trips. According to a recent poll, more than half of Americans say gas prices represent a financial hardship, while 77% say their income is not keeping up with rising inflation.

AAA predicts around 45 million Americans will travel over Memorial Day weekend, with 39.1 million driving at least 50 miles from home between Thursday and Monday, May 25, and an estimated 3.66 million flying. AAA expects about 100,000 more road trips this Memorial Day weekend than the prior year.