The abrupt dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development in early 2025 led to an uptick in overall conflict in parts of Africa that had received aid compared to those that had not, according to a study published in the journal Science. The research was conducted by Austin Wright, a data scientist at the University of Chicago, and his colleagues.

The researchers analyzed data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project on armed clashes, protests, riots and violence against civilians for the ten months before and after early 2025. Places that received more assistance tended to experience more conflict once aid abruptly disappeared, often because those who had relied on that aid became more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups.

"The rapid collapse of USAID undermined livelihoods and led to an increase in violence," Wright said. "The sudden loss of assistance took away livelihoods and undermined economic productivity, reducing incentives to refrain from violence."

Wright also pointed to a separate dynamic in the findings. "Aid can also increase conflict by introducing something to fight over," he said.

The one exception identified by the researchers was places with governments supporting stronger constraints on the executive leader, which experienced less impact on conflict after the funding withdrawal. The authors noted that recent conflict is the single best predictor of future conflict and that violence tends to be self-reinforcing, so the increase in violence may be the lasting legacy of the sudden termination of USAID.

In July 2025, protests broke out at the Kakuma refugee camp in northwest Kenya after U.S. aid that paid for food was curtailed. The camp had roughly 300,000 refugees who depended on food and other services paid for by USAID. Food distributions were sharply reduced, refugees threw rocks and set fires, and one person was killed.

Some African governments moved to fill funding gaps. Nigeria passed a $200 million supplementary health budget to cover shortfalls following the termination of USAID, and South Africa decided to help cover gaps in AIDS and HIV treatment.

"Conflict and the sources of conflict — it's very complex. I believe their results. They're convincing," said Andy Solow, a statistician at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

"One of the biggest problems with this 'report' is that it fundamentally ignores what is actually happening in Africa. The Trump administration has made unprecedented progress towards the advancement of peace on the continent. Unlike the previous administration … the Trump administration has reinvigorated our assistance programs to focus on efficiency, effectiveness, and partnership," said Tommy Pigott, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department.