The Senior Citizens League projects that Social Security recipients could receive a 3.9% cost-of-living adjustment in 2027, according to the advocacy group's latest estimate. The figure would exceed the 2.8% adjustment applied to benefits in 2026.

As of January, the average retired worker received $2,071 in monthly Social Security benefits. A 3.9% increase would add $80.77 to the typical monthly check, raising it to about $2,152. More than 70 million Americans receive Social Security retirement, disability and survivor benefits.

The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment will be based on inflation from July through September of 2026. The Social Security Administration applies CPI-W data from the third quarter of each year compared with the same period a year earlier to determine annual changes used for benefit adjustments. The CPI-W, or Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, tracks changes in prices across a basket of goods and services including food, transportation, housing and energy.

The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April. Older Americans told the Senior Citizens League they are struggling financially with a recent spike in fuel prices linked to the Iran war.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecast a 3.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, and said the figure could range from 3% to 4.5%, depending on inflation over the next several months. The final adjustment will not be set until October 2026.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is also urging lawmakers to cap benefits for wealthy retired couples at $100,000, which it said could save as much as $190 billion over a decade and close roughly 20% of the program's solvency gap. Addressing a separate policy proposal, the committee said: "We estimate it would worsen Social Security's shortfall by roughly $300 billion over the next decade and advance the insolvency of the old-age trust fund by three months from late 2032 to earlier in the year."