HARGEISA — Fertilizer and pesticides ordered three months ago by an agricultural shop in northern Somalia remain stranded in Dubai, the shop's chairman said, citing disruptions tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Mustafe Denbil, chairman of Horn Gardens in the city of Hargeisa, said the delay has pushed prices beyond the reach of small farmers who depend on his supplies.

"Now, when families come to our store, they may not get all what they need as they used to five months ago." Denbil said poor rainfall had also affected his business, but identified the war in the Middle East as the major problem.

"The small farmers cannot even afford to buy at this new price." he said.

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification report, global supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict are pushing up fertilizer and food costs in Somalia, where supply chains have been disrupted and the country depends largely on food imports to meet internal requirements. Diesel and gas prices have surged by up to 60% in parts of Somalia, a rise the IPC report linked to the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, increasing transportation costs. Roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer shipped by sea passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, and liquefied natural gas is an essential ingredient in producing nitrogen fertilizers, including urea.

The International Rescue Committee reported that the price of urea fertilizer rose from $40 to $65 per 50 kg sack, a 62.5% increase compared to precrisis levels, while DAP fertilizer prices rose by 20%. Sugar prices increased by 13.3%, rice by 9.6%, flour by 16%, cooking oil by 21.4% and milk by 42.8%.

Six million people, about 31% of the population, are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, including 1.9 million people facing emergency conditions, according to the IPC report, which also found a risk of famine in Somalia's Burhakaba district. Poor rains and renewed climate shocks are pushing harvest expectations down.

"The humanitarian context in Somalia is worsening faster than we originally projected and expected." George Conway, the U.N.'s top aid official in Somalia, said. "Nearly 2 million young children are acutely malnourished." Conway said 500,000 young children are so severely malnourished that they require urgent treatment to survive.

Seleshi Bekele Awulachew, a former minister of water, irrigation and energy, warned that the fertilizer shortage extends beyond Somalia. "All of us are exposed, be it Kenya, Tanzania, all the way down to South Africa," he said. "Scarce fertilizer supply means you don't apply adequate fertilizer, or you may not even apply fertilizer. So it will create really serious crisis in the region if this problem persists."

Between 2021 and early 2023, Somalia suffered through the longest recorded drought in its history. Crops and cattle perished, at least 43,000 people died and more than 1.5 million people were displaced during that period.