ASIA PACIFIC REGION — The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves in March in an effort to ease global prices following a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the war by the United States and Israel against Iran. Fuel prices have surged in the conflict's fallout, with import-reliant poorer countries among the worst affected because they lack energy reserves to cushion price shocks.

The Paris-based agency, established in 1974 and tasked with ensuring the global oil supply, is comprised exclusively of the industrialised countries that are part of the OECD. Its 32 member countries represent about 16 percent of the world's population, less than one-fifth of the global total. Member states are required to maintain oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of their imports, and as of March held 1.2 billion barrels in public reserves, with a further 600 million barrels held by private industry under government mandates.

The release drew attention to the lack of stockpiles across much of the Global South. According to IEA estimates, the 10 countries or blocs with the most reserves — including China, the United States, Japan, India, and the European members of the OECD — account for 70 percent of global oil stockpiles while representing roughly half of the global population. China alone is estimated to maintain about 1.4 billion barrels of emergency oil supplies, exceeding the combined reserves of the U.S., Japan, the European OECD members, and Saudi Arabia, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The Middle East and Central Asia are the epicentre of the conflict, and the Asia Pacific region is expected to take the biggest economic hit. The Asian Development Bank downgraded its 2026 growth outlook for developing economies in the Asia Pacific region to 4.7 percent, from an earlier estimate of 5.1 percent. In many parts of developing Asia, economies are highly reliant on fuel imports and existing oil buffers fall well below the IEA standard.

"Strategic petroleum reserves are expensive to build, fill, finance, rotate, and govern," said Khalid Waleed, a research fellow at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad, Pakistan. "For countries facing foreign exchange constraints, debt servicing pressures, food import bills, electricity subsidies, and social protection needs, holding millions of barrels of oil in storage can look like a luxury, even when it is strategically necessary."

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy in Houston, Texas, estimates that more than 70 percent of the world's population lives in countries that lack sufficient oil buffers. He said countries should aim to maintain reserves for 120 to 150 days to manage energy price shocks more easily, a target that exceeds the IEA's 90-day requirement. "Strategic petroleum reserves are a matter of national security," Galimberti said.

Neil Crosby, head of research at Sparta in Singapore, said many developing countries lack the financial means to build strategic reserves and suffer technical problems such as grid failures and inadequate domestic refining capacity, leaving them ill-equipped to maintain large crude oil stores. He said the Global South could mitigate some overheads by partnering with the private sector, but added that reducing dependence on fossil fuels would require costly investments in green energy. "Ultimately, the strongest long-term defence is accelerating renewable energy projects to permanently decouple local power generation from the international oil market," Crosby said.