LONDON — A Compass survey of more than 1,000 Labour Party members found that 42% would pick Andy Burnham to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader if given a free choice, compared with 11% for Wes Streeting. The same survey found that Burnham had a 44% favourability rating among members, while Streeting had an 18% favourability rating.

Streeting is considered to be on the right of the Labour Party. He was formerly close to Peter Mandelson and was part of the Blairite Progress wing. Research by Queen Mary University of London found that about 48% of Labour Party members describe themselves as "fairly leftwing."

Labour Party membership peaked at 532,046 at the end of 2019 before falling to 333,235 by the end of 2024, a decline of more than 200,000 members over the five-year period.

Tim Bale, a professor of politics, said the departures had reshaped the party's grassroots. "Lots of grassroots members have left Labour since the general election, either to join the Greens (and to a lesser extent Your Party), or just to give up belonging to any party," he said.

Bale linked the disillusionment to the leadership. "Starmer, inasmuch as he has any strong values, is pretty much like your current average Labour member, and the fact that in some ways he seems to have betrayed them is partly responsible for their disillusionment with him," he said.

He cautioned against assumptions about the remaining membership. "But anyone on the right of the Labour Party hoping that this means those remaining are on their side is probably fooling themselves," Bale said. "Even those who've stuck around are highly likely to be leftwing and very socially liberal," he added.

On Streeting's prospects, Bale said: "If Streeting can show them he's the guy to do that, he still has a chance, even if he's not their ideological ideal."