NEW YORK — The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States climbed 31 cents in the past week to $4.54 on Wednesday, according to AAA data. The current average is 52% higher than before the war with Iran began.

Crude oil prices climbed for most of the past two months after Iran effectively shut the waterway off its coast. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage through which one-fifth of the world's crude oil normally passes, and the war stranded oil tankers near it. According to the International Energy Agency, Iran's effective closure of the strait during the war triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets, pushing oil prices as high as $112 a barrel in early April.

Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran appeared to be moving closer to an initial agreement to end the war. In mid-April, U.S. gasoline prices fell daily for almost two weeks as signs emerged that the conflict could be winding down.

"After the announcement of the initial ceasefire, there was kind of optimism that this really could be the beginning of the end of the conflict," said Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy. "Crude prices came down correspondingly, gasoline spot prices followed, and the retailers lowered prices as well."

Smith said it will take months for gasoline prices to return to pre-war levels even if the conflict is resolved. "There's a fundamental shortfall that will exist globally or fundamental struggle to meet that demand that will drive up price. No matter what a government says or what any market person thinks, there is a true kind of upward pressure that's being exerted on prices every day the Strait of Hormuz is constrained, and it is still severely constrained," he said.

According to the Energy Information Administration, oil prices represented about 51% of the price of a gallon of gasoline in 2025 in the U.S. Federal and state taxes contributed about 17%, refining costs and profits contributed 14%, and distribution and marketing contributed 17%.

In April, the U.S. blocked Iranian ports to stop the country from exporting oil. "Iran had been moving an unusually high amount of oil to global markets, so that was helping moderate prices," said Jim Krane, energy research fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute. "The Trump administration decides they're going to punish Iran, and try to put more pressure on Iran by blocking their exports, so of course that does put pressure on Iran, but also puts pressure on global oil prices and forces them up. That was probably a big factor," he said.

Bob Kleinberg, adjunct senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, compared the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. with the price for a barrel of WTI and said their price changes generally matched up. "Not much of a mystery here. It's not exactly proportional but the shape of the curves follows the same pattern, and really with very little delay," Kleinberg said. "The oil market is exquisitely sensitive to what's coming out of the White House."

At the beginning of the Iran war in early March, the price of gasoline jumped 48 cents in a week. The highest weekly jump occurred in March 2022, when the price jumped 60 cents in a week after Russia invaded Ukraine. A gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. now costs more than it did in early May 2022, when prices continued to climb through Memorial Day.