LONG BEACH — The oil tanker New Corolla arrived at the Port of Long Beach in early May 2026 to offload 2 million barrels of crude destined to be transformed into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. The vessel, which loaded in Iraq on February 24, will fully unload at the Marathon Petroleum terminal and depart for distant waters in two weeks.

After the New Corolla leaves, California will need to replace about 200,000 barrels of oil per day that previously arrived from the Persian Gulf. U.S. and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran in early 2026, followed by a double blockade of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments that left before Iran blocked the strait in late February have continued to reach California on a one-to-two-month lag. A separate tanker that departed Iraq a month before the war began has been anchored off Long Beach since March.

California imports about 75% of its oil from foreign countries and Alaska, with roughly 30% of foreign supply coming from the Middle East last year. In March and April 2026, the state received about 21% and 14% of its foreign oil from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Saudi Arabia has been routing shipments from the Red Sea to circumvent the strait, but none are headed to the U.S. West Coast. The state's crude supply has been declining since the 1980s due to aging fields and costly geology, and California has no gasoline pipelines from other states.

"Refineries have to source from elsewhere, and they are scrambling to find where to get that oil," said Susan Bell, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. Refiners typically plan crude sourcing about two months ahead. "They would definitely look to Brazil for the medium grades," Bell said. Chevron declined to share its supply plans, saying they are "material to our business."

"Argentina, Ecuador and Brazil already have some crude on the way," said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler. "Unlike fuel coming from Asia or the Middle East, cargoes from Canada or Latin America could still load now and discharge next week," he said.

The average cost of California gasoline has topped $6 per gallon. In 2024, the state imported about 10% of its gasoline; as of 2026, that figure has risen to roughly 20%, with South Korea, the Bahamas and India as the top suppliers. South Korea has virtually suspended jet fuel shipments and cut gasoline and diesel exports, while India has raised export duties on finished fuel products. China, Thailand, South Korea and Pakistan have scaled back or banned gasoline exports to protect domestic supply. The Valero Benicia refinery went idle in February 2025, the PBF Martinez refinery has remained offline since a fire that same month, and the Phillips 66 Wilmington refinery went offline in December 2025.

The California Energy Commission is confident in the state's oil supply outlook for the next six weeks, which includes refinery stocks and additional storage, and forecasts liquid gasoline supplies through May.

"All bets are off," said Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking. "We went into this with pretty healthy inventories, but those are being drawn down, and that's when it gets really precarious," he said.