SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA — Fertilizer shortages caused by the war on Iran will tighten global rice supplies in the second half of this year and into early next year, Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, said this month. The conflict has disrupted the flow of fuel and fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz, with Gulf states accounting for 35% of the world's urea supply.

"Farmers have already started planting rice in some countries and are using fewer inputs because prices have gone up. We are going to see a tighter global supply situation in the second half of the year and early next year," Torero said.

The price of urea has risen by between 60% and 70% since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran at the end of February, according to Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International. Holsether said ammonia supplies have also been disrupted, and Qatar has suspended ammonia production entirely.

The disruption is affecting farmers in Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. The El Niño weather pattern is set to bring hotter, drier conditions to Southeast Asia in the second half of the year and is expected to further constrain global rice output.

In Thailand, farmer Sripai Kaew-Eam said production costs had risen to about 6,000 baht per rai, from around 4,500 to 5,000 baht for the previous crop, because of high fertilizer and fuel prices. She said fertilizer prices had increased to 1,000 to 1,200 baht per bag from 850 baht, forcing her to cut her use by half.

Arze Glipo, executive director of the Integrated Rural Development Foundation, said some farmers may not plant or will reduce fertilizer use, which would cut production. She said the Philippines' rice output could fall by as much as 6 million tons from its typical 19 million to 20 million. The Philippines is the world's biggest rice importer.

Indonesia's statistics bureau estimates the rice harvest area from March to May will shrink by 10.6% to 3.85 million hectares, and unhusked rice production will drop 11.12% to 20.68 million tons. India holds a record 42 million tons of rice stock, about one-fifth of global stockpiles, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

In 2008, export curbs by key suppliers more than doubled rice prices to about $1,000 per metric ton, triggering unrest in several countries. India's export restrictions between 2022 and 2023 contributed to supply tightness that lifted rice prices and prompted panic buying. The FAO has projected a 2% expansion in rice output to a record high by 2025/26.